When metals become attractive: how Bitcoin remains on the sidelines of defensive rotation

During times of macroeconomic uncertainty, markets demonstrate a clear divergence: precious metals are rising strongly, while cryptocurrencies and stock indices struggle with bearish pressure. This time, Bitcoin has not joined the defensive trend, revealing deep changes in investor behavior.

Current Market Architecture: Safe Assets vs. High Risks

The current market dynamics reflect a classic risk reassessment. Rising debt pressures and tighter financial conditions are prompting capital to migrate from volatile assets to solid assets. Gold and silver demonstrate this maturity of defensive demand, while Bitcoin remains in consolidation.

According to analyst Kyle Dups: “These movements coincide with a continuous increase in debt pressure and tighter financial conditions, which direct capital into solid assets. When metals show such dynamics, it reflects a reassessment of risks across the entire system, not a chase for short-term profit.”

This capital rotation is not accidental but a systemic response to uncertainty. Cryptocurrency and stock markets remain detached from this growth, confirming that the pressure on metals stems from defensive positioning rather than positive expectations for economic expansion.

Bitcoin in Consolidation Phase: How Will the Scenario Develop

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $90.91K, showing a minimal increase of 0.06% over the last day. This price is within a descending parallel channel formed since early October.

The cryptocurrency failed to hold resistance at $90,000, which corresponds to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Technical indicators generally paint a cautious picture:

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 39, indicating proximity to oversold territory but not yet reaching extreme levels. MACD remains negative with weak signs of positive convergence. Moving averages tell their story: the recently formed “death cross” (when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day) indicates sustained medium-term pressure.

If selling pressure intensifies, Bitcoin could test the lower level at $80,600 — the middle line of its parallel channel. However, if buyers activate, a recovery past $90,358 would confirm an upward impulse.

For a more convincing regeneration of this asset, it needs to push the 50-day moving average to support at $95,450. An extremely bullish scenario suggests Bitcoin could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $98,018, implying a 14% increase from the current position.

Gold: Stability and Defensive Dominance

Gold remains near historic highs, trading at $4,330 per ounce, just below the recent peak of $4,389. What is particularly impressive is its stability: over the past year, this metal has been above the 50-day moving average 88% of the time.

Such a pattern was last observed in 1980, during a prolonged period of defensive recovery. Technical indicators indicate a moderately positive sentiment:

RSI is at $63, suggesting the possibility of entering overbought territory, but since it is still below the critical 70 mark, there is room for further growth. MACD continues to stay above the signal line, demonstrating potential for buyers.

Gold’s support trend, combined with Fibonacci levels in the $4,160–$4,000 range, provides a solid buffer for possible correction. These levels also offer good entry points for traders entering the market late.

However, one detail deserves attention: although gold’s momentum remains positive, its growth rate is significantly slower than the parabolic jump in silver. This indicates that gold is moving in a defensive rotation rather than speculative frenzy.

Silver Under Pressure: When the Metal Moves in Geometric Progression

Silver futures reached an all-time high $66 per ounce, highlighting extraordinary bullish pressure. Over recent months, the metal has made a steep parabolic jump, confidently breaking through the previous resistance near $54.

Technical indicators show classic signs of overheating: RSI is at 77, indicating an extremely overbought market. MACD continues to rise but already shows signs of momentum slowing. Moving averages remain well below the current price, confirming the strength of the trend, but also signaling a potential quick correction.

If you are considering trading different metals and want to track their behavior, using a metal calculator to estimate position costs at various levels might be helpful.

Economist Peter Sent-ong noted: “The rapid rise in silver prices… is mainly driven by government debt, inflation fears, and demand from AI data centers. Meanwhile, inventories are shrinking, and mining remains stagnant.”

Key support levels to watch: the psychological mark of $60, consolidation levels at $53.99 and $48.89. Traders should exercise caution: the combination of parabolic growth and extreme RSI values significantly increases the risk of a sharp correction, even amid a generally bullish sentiment.

Conclusion: Capital Under Pressure Moves into Solid Assets

The contrast between the rapid rise of silver and gold on one side and the stagnation of the cryptocurrency and stock markets on the other is a clear demonstration of capital rotation driven by macroeconomic uncertainty.

Bitcoin remains in consolidation, as its nature as a high-beta asset makes it less attractive during periods when investors seek protection. Precious metals have become a priority hedging instrument rather than speculative objects. This is a story of how markets adapt to a new global environment where uncertainty demands defensive positions rather than expansive risk-taking.