Bitcoin in 2026: chaos or evolution? Galaxy Digital reveals why forecasts are so divergent

The market awaits an impulse

Bitcoin ended 2025 at a level close to its starting point, although the journey of this asset was dramatic. After reaching a new all-time high of $126,080 in October, a strong correction caused by macroeconomic disappointment, liquidation of leveraged positions, and mass selling by large holders brought BTC back to the $80,000–$90,000 range. According to the latest data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $90.87K.

However, Galaxy Digital – a leading digital asset firm – suggests that this superficial calm masks deep uncertainty about what lies ahead. The company confirmed that although the long-term outlook for Bitcoin until 2027 seems promising, the situation in 2026 is much more chaotic than it appeared.

2026: a year full of variables

“2026 is too chaotic to predict with certainty, although the possibility that Bitcoin will set new highs during this period still exists,” commented Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital. The company believes Bitcoin needs stabilization above the $100,000–$105,000 level to confirm an upward trend. Until this barrier is maintained, the threat of a correction remains real.

Galaxy’s long-term prospects are decidedly more optimistic – the firm expects a price of $250,000 by the end of 2027. Nevertheless, the near future requires caution.

The options market says what’s hard to put into words

What the derivatives markets show is truly interesting. Options traders price nearly symmetrical scenarios for June 2026: Bitcoin could trade at both $70,000 and $130,000 with similar probability. By the end of 2026, the spread widens dramatically – from $50,000 to $250,000.

“These extremely wide ranges reflect deep uncertainties about the coming months,” Thorn explained. Major risk factors include shifts in monetary policy, rising spending on artificial intelligence technology, and the upcoming US midterm elections.

Lessons from last year

Galaxy Digital admitted that its forecasts for 2025 did not always materialize. Bitcoin did not reach the targeted $150,000 nor test $185,000 as previously expected. Although early in the year BTC showed strong risk-adjusted indicators, it ended 2025 with a negative Sharpe ratio – a measure of return adjusted for risk.

Spot ETFs on Bitcoin also did not reach the goal of $250 billion in managed capital (AUM), stopping at around $141 billion. These variable results made Galaxy more pragmatic in its approach to 2026.

Maturing through calm

Despite missed forecasts, Galaxy sees a bigger story: Bitcoin is evolving toward a more traditional macroeconomic asset. Volatility has decreased, and downside protection costs have already surpassed betting on gains – a phenomenon typical of established markets like gold.

“2026 could be surprisingly boring for Bitcoin, but regardless of whether it ends at $70,000 or $150,000, our bullish stance only strengthens,” Thorn said. For Bitcoin, now thirty years old, unexpected stability could be the strongest signal of maturity and institutional acceptance.

Answers to key questions

Why is 2025, despite the record, considered disappointing?
Bitcoin reached a historic peak but ended the year near the starting point, showing reduced volatility. This suggests a transition from pure speculation to a more mature behavior of a macroeconomic asset.

What do derivatives markets say about 2026 scenarios?
Options traders price extreme scenarios – from $50,000 to $250,000 – reflecting significant uncertainty related to monetary policy, AI spending, and geopolitics.

Can a “boring” year be positive for Bitcoin?
Absolutely. Lower volatility and increased interest in downside protection suggest Bitcoin is transforming into a more institutional, stable asset – a solid foundation for long-term growth.