Tomorrow (January 13th) at 21:30 Beijing time, the US CPI data release will become the true touchstone for the cryptocurrency market in 2026, marking the beginning of the year. Behind seemingly ordinary inflation figures, there is a fierce collision of Federal Reserve policy independence and market confidence.

**Rising Policy Uncertainty**

Recently, the investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice into the Federal Reserve management has unsettled market nerves. Investors are beginning to worry: Can the Fed truly make decisions based on economic data rather than external pressures? This doubt has directly suppressed market trust in the data. Coupled with the potential short-term government shutdown at the end of 2025, the sampling of this CPI may be delayed— the authenticity of physical prices and rent data is questionable. This "gray area" is most likely to trigger excessive market reactions.

**Liquidity Traps and Leverage Risks**

From a trading depth perspective, Bitcoin currently has substantial long leverage positions—three times or higher—in the range of $91,000 to $93,000. If tomorrow’s data exceeds expectations—for example, core CPI unexpectedly surpassing 2.8%—triggering a chain of liquidations, the market could instantly see thousands of points of "spikes." This is not alarmist; the fragility of liquidity distribution determines the market’s sensitivity.

In the long term, the crypto market has gradually evolved from a pure risk asset to a barometer of macro trading. A single CPI report can rewrite the short-term trend rhythm.