From $126,198 to $85,000: Is this correction really the bottom?

November 2025 experienced the most testing month for investor psychology in this Bitcoin bull market cycle. From the all-time high of $126,198 touched in October, the price oscillated downward, breaking through two key psychological levels at $100,000 and $90,000. The lowest point reached $85,328, with a monthly decline of over 30%, enough to trap many retail investors who chased the rally at high levels, and prompting skeptics to reconsider: Is the bull market coming to an end, or is this an excellent opportunity to accumulate?

As of January 12, 2026, Bitcoin is quoted at $90.79K, rebounding from the lows but still 28% below the ATH. This article will analyze the current market situation through on-chain data, technical indicators, macro background, historical cycle comparisons, and insights from multiple institutions.

Market Situation Analysis: Technical Oversold Conditions Present, but Panic Is Not Extreme

Latest data shows Bitcoin has entered a clearly oversold zone:

Price and Volume Performance

• Current Price: $90.79K (28% correction from the high)
• 24-hour Range: $90.24K–$92.52K
• 7-day Change: -1.82% (stable week-over-week)
• Market Cap: $181.36 billion
• 24-hour Trading Volume: $736 million

Compared to the panic at the November lows, trading volume has significantly decreased, indicating the extreme panic selling window is nearing its end.

On-Chain Data Signals Buying Opportunities

Several key on-chain indicators suggest large holders are quietly accumulating:

1. Whale Address Holdings Change: Over the past week, the number of addresses holding over 1,000 BTC has increased significantly. This is the first net buy signal in 2025, reversing the trend of large holder reductions seen throughout the year.

2. Long-term Holder Share Reaching New Highs: According to Glassnode data, the proportion of long-term holders (HODLers) has risen to a record 76%, indicating circulating supply is accelerating its decline—a classic bullish signal.

3. Institutional Attitudes Shift: JPMorgan’s latest research report states that the November sell-off was mainly driven by retail investors (about $4 billion outflows from spot ETFs), but institutions did not follow suit—instead, they are gradually building positions. This pattern has historically followed major dips.

Technical Perspective: Retracement from Highs Aligns with Bull Market Norms

The over 30% correction in Bitcoin aligns with the typical bear market correction after halving cycles.

Historical Halving Cycle Benchmarks

Bitcoin’s fourth halving occurred on April 20, 2024, at about $64,500. Looking at the bull runs after previous halvings:

• 2012 halving → Peak in December 2013, +9,000%
• 2016 halving → Peak in December 2017, +2,900% (19 months after halving)
• 2020 halving → Peak in November 2021, +1,800% (18 months after halving)
• 2024 halving → Peak in October 2025 at $126,198 (18 months after halving)

The current correction from the high is similar to the 54% drop in May–July 2021 and 40% in January–February 2018, both last shakeouts before the top. Fibonacci retracement shows the price approaching the 0.382 level, a key reversal zone.

Extreme Risk Indicators

• RSI has fallen below 30, entering oversold territory.
• Historically, when the 14-day RSI drops below 30, Bitcoin tends to rise an average of 68% over the next 3–8 weeks.

Where Is the Bottom? Three Most Probable Scenarios

Combining technicals, on-chain data, sentiment indicators, and institutional moves, I present three scenarios with different probabilities:

Main Scenario (70% probability): Bottom at $82,000–$84,000

• Timeframe: Mid-January to early February 2026
• Trigger Conditions: Retail ETF outflows end + RSI hits below 25 (extreme oversold) + whale addresses continue increasing
• This zone is also a relatively safe accumulation area with favorable risk-reward.

Optimistic Scenario (20% probability): Reversal at $85,000–$88,000

• Timeframe: Mid-January 2026
• Trigger Conditions: Trump’s government announces pro-crypto policies or Bitcoin strategic reserves early
• Current price is close to this zone; major positive news could trigger a V-shaped rebound.

Pessimistic Scenario (10% probability): $68,000–$74,000

• Timeframe: February–March 2026
• Trigger Conditions: Fed policy shifts abruptly or geopolitical conflicts escalate
• Although less likely, risk management suggests setting stop-losses.

Personal Judgment: The most probable bottom is around $82,000 (±$2,000), likely in mid to late January.

The Five Core Drivers for the Next Bull Run

Once the bottom is confirmed, these five factors will propel Bitcoin into its 2026 main rally:

1. Substantive Implementation of Trump’s Pro-Crypto Policies

Trump has promised to make the US the “global crypto capital” and proposed establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. While no concrete legislation has been passed yet, market expectations suggest at least one major policy in early 2026 (e.g., including Bitcoin in Fed assets, expanding crypto-friendly regulation). Historically, US policy shifts favorably have led to 3–10x gains within 6–12 months.

2. Institutional Capital Flows Back into Spot ETFs

The $4 billion outflows in November were mainly retail panic. Institutions, however, did not follow—similar to the post-3AC and FTX collapses in 2022, when retail investors panicked and sold, institutions were accumulating. Giants like BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity continue increasing holdings. When the panic index drops below 10, capital will flood in.

3. The Lagged Effect of Halving Supply Shock (Most Underestimated Factor)

Post-April 2024 halving, daily new supply dropped from 900 to 450 BTC. The true impact of halving often manifests 18–22 months later. Currently, we are in this window, with circulating supply decreasing and large holders increasing their high-level holdings, signaling the strongest supply tightness.

4. Continuation of the Fed’s Easing Cycle

In 2025, the Fed cut rates by 150 basis points, and the market expects continued easing in 2026. Bitcoin’s high correlation (0.85) with Nasdaq means that when Nasdaq hits new highs, Bitcoin will likely follow.

5. Accelerated Adoption by Sovereigns and Institutions

Countries like Argentina and El Salvador continue to increase holdings; MicroStrategy owns over 400,000 BTC. Major pension funds like Japan’s and Norway’s sovereign wealth funds are also significantly increasing their positions in 2025. 2026 will be the era of “nation-states and institutions racing to buy Bitcoin.”

Institutional Expectations for 2026

Several top institutions have set target prices for the end of 2026:

• Standard Chartered: $250,000
• VanEck: $180,000–$250,000
• Bernstein Analysts: $300,000
• Tom Lee (Fundstrat founder): up to $250,000–$350,000

While these projections seem aggressive, they are based on rigorous analysis of halving cycles, supply models, macro policies, and historical patterns.

Investment Strategy: Three-Tiered Accumulation Plan

Based on risk appetite, I recommend layered accumulation:

Aggressive Investors

• Entry Zone: $85,000–$86,000 (already near current levels)
• Position Size: 10%–20% of total capital
• Suitable for: Those confident the bottom is near and able to tolerate volatility

Moderate Investors

• Entry Zone: $81,000–$82,000
• Position Size: 30%–40%
• Suitable for: Willing to wait for further confirmation, moderate risk tolerance

Conservative Investors

• Entry Zone: $77,000–$79,000 (if price drops below $80,000)
• Position Size: 50%+
• Suitable for: Highly risk-averse, only willing to buy during extreme panic

Stop-Loss: $72,000

If the price effectively breaks below $72,000, it’s advisable to exit all positions. The probability of such a scenario is below 8%, but risk management is essential.

Summary: Understanding the Nature of This Correction

The 30%+ correction in November 2025 is essentially the last gift for latecomers in the bull market, not a sign of its end.

All technical indicators are flashing buy signals: RSI oversold, long-term holder share at record highs, whales quietly accumulating, institutions building positions. All historical patterns point to the same conclusion: around $82,000 is a highly probable bottom, and 2026 will usher in the most explosive halving cycle bull run.

The most profitable buy points in Bitcoin history always appear during “blood in the streets,” not amid applause and flowers. When everyone is overwhelmed by panic, that’s when the greedy harvest season begins.

The current price of $90.79K still has about 6%–10% space to the expected bottom—this zone is the perfect balance between waiting and acting.