When I saw the December non-farm payroll data early in the morning, it indeed caught many people off guard. The increase was only 50,000, which is 23,000 less than expected. I thought it might signal a rate cut, but the probability of a January rate cut was immediately pushed down to 5%. This move clearly reflects the Federal Reserve's insistence on the word "caution."

Now, some might be starting to get nervous: the Federal Reserve's meeting at 3 a.m. on January 29th will definitely keep rates unchanged. Is this a major bearish signal? Should we consider clearing our positions? Don't rush to conclusions. Let's clarify this matter with some hardcore points and, by the way, look at where the opportunities are for the first wave of the 2026 market.

First, the background. The non-farm data seems weak, but why is the Fed not rushing to cut rates? The logic is straightforward: the current US unemployment rate is only 4.4%, and the job market hasn't reached a level where the central bank needs to intervene. More importantly, inflation hasn't fallen to the 2% target yet. Powell's team fears that premature rate cuts could reignite inflation. They have only endured half of the anti-inflation battle from previous years, and they don't want to undo their efforts. To simplify: the Fed is on the defensive, and market panic has little impact on them.

So, what does this "no rate cut" mean for the crypto world? This is the key. First, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is as high as 95%, and a rate cut might only happen in March, with expectations around 30%. In the short term, the dollar might indeed strengthen. But don't be fooled by the old routine of "a strong dollar causes crypto to fall." Currently, global funds are searching for outlets. Stock markets are diverging more sharply, bond yields have peaked, and the crypto market has instead become a new destination for seeking high returns. This shift in logic is more worth paying attention to than just exchange rate movements.