#比特币价格预测 Recent news about the decline in mining activities in the crypto space has been everywhere, and VanEck's analysis is quite interesting. In simple terms, a decrease in hash rate might actually be a bullish signal. Historical data shows that after a drop in hash rate, there is a 65% chance of positive returns within 90 days, compared to 54% when hash rate is increasing. This logic essentially suggests that weak miners are surrendering and exiting, indicating that the market is cleaning out the bottom.

Looking at Pompliano's perspective, he believes that the lack of a big rally by the end of the year is actually a good thing because volatility has already been significantly compressed, which in turn reduces the likelihood of a sharp drop in Q1 next year. This guy also emphasizes that Bitcoin has actually performed quite strongly over the long term—doubling in two years and nearly 300% growth over three years—short-term disappointment is easily overshadowed by long-term performance.

Overall, it seems that market sentiment is gradually shifting from panic to cautious optimism. Declining mining activity, compressed volatility, and hash rate adjustments—these seemingly negative signals are actually being interpreted by institutional investors as signs of bottom accumulation. Whether prices can rise still depends on future developments, but from a data perspective, the risk of a sharp crash is indeed decreasing, which is a good backdrop for long-term holders.