ADA Golden Cross Signal Emerges, How Far Can the First Wave of Rise in 2026 Go?

At the beginning of 2026, Cardano (ADA) took the lead in releasing strong technical signals. On January 4th, ADA completed its first “golden cross” of the year on the 2-hour chart, a classic technical pattern that quickly drew market attention to its subsequent trend. The current price is in the $0.41-$0.42 range, having retraced slightly in the past 24 hours, but with a nearly 20% increase over the past 7 days, and a 23.5% gain since the start of the year. More importantly, positive signals are brewing on higher timeframes, supported by both technical fundamentals and catalysts.

Technical Perspective: Progressive Confirmation from 2-Hour to Daily Charts

The golden cross refers to the short-term moving average (50-period) crossing above the long-term moving average (200-period), which is regarded as an important confirmation of trend strengthening in technical analysis. According to the latest news, ADA has completed this pattern on the 2-hour chart, with the price continuing its upward structure.

Even more noteworthy is the progress on higher timeframes. TradingView data shows that on the 4-hour chart, the 50 and 200-period moving averages are converging rapidly. If momentum continues to build, there is a possibility of an even higher-level golden cross. Once confirmed on the 4-hour or daily chart, it often signals the start of a significant upward trend.

From technical indicators, ADA’s daily RSI remains around 56, in a healthy zone. This position indicates strong momentum without entering overbought territory, suggesting room for further upside. However, trading volume in the past 24 hours has slightly decreased to $859 million, indicating a brief pause as the market consolidates after the breakout.

Fundamental Factors: Ecosystem Progress Provides Mid- to Long-term Support

Beyond technical signals, fundamental factors substantively support ADA’s upward movement.

Recent simulation results for Ouroboros Leios demonstrate significant performance improvements, which are crucial for Cardano’s long-term competitiveness. Additionally, founder Charles Hoskinson has expressed optimism about Cardano’s performance in 2026 and plans to enhance communication through long-form writing and live streams.

Market Environment: A New Era of Independent Altcoin Trends

The backdrop for ADA’s rise also includes changes in the overall crypto market structure. Historically, during Bitcoin downturns, altcoins often followed with sharp declines. However, analysis suggests this pattern is changing. Despite recent volatility in Bitcoin, major altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano have shown relatively independent movements, with capital flows indicating a “rotation effect” rather than panic selling.

This reflects two key changes: first, the strengthening of altcoins’ intrinsic value support, moving beyond mere hype; second, an optimized market participant structure with increased institutional and long-term holders. In such an environment, projects with genuine technological progress are more likely to gain market recognition.

Price Outlook and Risks

According to Grok, an AI chatbot under xAI, if macroeconomic conditions and ecosystem development improve in tandem, ADA could reach around $3.50 by the end of 2026, offering significant upside potential from current levels. This forecast is based on assumptions of technological upgrades, ecosystem enhancements, and regulatory improvements.

However, it’s important to recognize that such predictions involve multiple variables and require multiple factors to align. In the short term, ADA needs to confirm the golden cross on the 4-hour and higher timeframes and break through key resistance levels to move higher. In the medium term, the actual implementation of the Leios upgrade and market response to the Midnight mainnet will be critical.

Summary

The golden cross signal for ADA is indeed worth noting, but it’s only the beginning. The key is whether this signal can be confirmed on higher timeframes and whether ecosystem progress can proceed as planned. From a technical perspective, ADA still has room for further gains; fundamentally, the founder’s attitude and ecosystem upgrades are relatively optimistic; and the emerging independent altcoin trend provides better opportunities for projects with real value. However, any investment decision should be based on individual risk tolerance, with technical signals and fundamentals serving as references, not guarantees.