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#2026年比特币价格展望 On-Chain Signal Alert: Looks like a rebound in price, but the underlying demand is still dormant
Recently, I’ve been analyzing reports from CryptoQuant and comparing them with the demand curve chart. I found an interesting phenomenon — price and demand are moving in opposite directions.
Bitcoin’s price has already rebounded above $93,000, which seems promising. But if you open the chart of the 0-day cumulative apparent demand, you'll notice a subtle signal discrepancy: the blue demand line has not followed the price upward after January 2026. Comparing this with the two real bull markets in early 2024 and mid-2025, the current demand strength is clearly much weaker.
Why is this discrepancy worth caution?
A core reason is that market trading sentiment is quite polarized, and on-chain capital flows are not very active. Simply put, the price has gone up, but the new capital driving it higher has not kept pace. The current rally appears more like a temporary easing of market selling pressure rather than a sign of continuous influx of large funds and new money.
This raises a question: at the $93,000 level, is the price more likely a result of short-term liquidity repair rather than a solid foundation of increased demand? To use an analogy, it’s like gasoline prices rising, but the average daily customer flow at gas stations hasn’t actually increased.
There is an important observation window in the coming weeks. After the holiday, if on-chain data still shows no significant improvement, this price rebound could become quite fragile. A true bull market always involves demand and price moving together, not just a one-sided price rally. If the market wants to break through and stabilize at $100,000, that blue demand curve must show strong upward signals.
Experience teaches us a simple truth: prices are easily driven by sentiment, but on-chain data is hard to fake. While celebrating the price recovery, it’s better to focus on the real engine — is demand truly starting to pick up? That’s the key factor determining how far the market can go in the future.