January 28th, will it finally happen?

The probability of the Federal Reserve holding steady is as high as 90%—but this is not a signal of a dovish turn, nor does it mean an unexpected rate cut. In plain terms, it’s just waiting.

In such an environment, how could the main players sit idly by? What kind of scenario do they need?
✔ Bad news comes one after another, but none of it really hits
✔ Good news is everywhere, but it never materializes
✔ Retail investors’ emotions are repeatedly tortured into numbness

The current rhythm is clear: retail investors are pondering, "As soon as a rate cut comes, I can take off," unaware that the main players are calculating behind the scenes—"When all expectations fall flat and retail investors hand over their chips, that will be our opportunity."

Is no rate cut truly the end of bad news? Not necessarily. Rather than being bad news, it’s a test of patience. Whoever loses control first will have their chips taken over first.

If nothing really happens on January 28th—no surprises, no triggers, nothing at all—what will you see? Emotions will collapse first, and then, in places you can’t quite see clearly, chips will quietly start to shift.

This is the truth of the market: the most ferocious moves never start at the moment good news hits. Quite the opposite, they only come knocking when everyone’s hope is nearly exhausted and despair begins.