Staking reversal plus institutional locking, Ethereum brewing a new round of upward signals

Ethereum on-chain staking data shows a significant reversal for the first time in six months, with 1.32 million ETH queued for staking, while only 3,000 ETH are exiting the queue. This “more entering, less exiting” pattern is changing ETH’s circulation structure. Meanwhile, the ETH price has regained above $3,200, rising 11% in the past two weeks and clearly outperforming Bitcoin’s 6% increase during the same period. How strong is the bullish signal conveyed by these combined data?

What the staking queue reversal means

Net lock-in status formation

The current Ethereum staking market exhibits extreme asymmetry: approximately 1.32 million ETH wait an average of 23 days to be staked, while only about 3,000 ETH are withdrawing, with withdrawal times under an hour. This indicates that the funds seeking to lock ETH far exceed those seeking to unlock.

Market analysis suggests that this “entry queue significantly exceeds the exit queue” structure has historically appeared before strong ETH rallies. Conversely, when the exit queue rises, it is often associated with market panic or passive deleveraging. The current reversal indicates growing investor recognition of Ethereum’s long-term value.

Supply-side tightening effect

The 1.32 million ETH locked in the staking queue means this liquidity will not enter the trading market in the short term. Combined with the already staked ETH, the entire Ethereum network is in a “net lock-in” state, helping to alleviate potential selling pressure.

At the same time, Ethereum’s deflationary mechanism is also at work. According to recent reports, the number of new addresses on Ethereum has increased by about 110% after the Fusaka upgrade, and on-chain activity has recovered, boosting ETH burn volume and further tightening supply and demand. In Q4, stablecoin transfer volume surpassed $8 trillion, setting a new record, indicating active on-chain capital flow; users are not withdrawing but increasing usage intensity.

Institutional funds are changing the game

Large long-term lockups

In the past two weeks, publicly listed company BitMine has staked approximately $2.58 billion worth of ETH. Such large, long-term lockup actions send a clear signal of long-term holding, which is changing ETH’s circulation structure. Institutional funds are seen as a key driver of this staking growth.

Additionally, Grayscale’s Ethereum Staking ETF (ETHE) has become the first US Ethereum ETP to distribute staking rewards, paying $0.083178 per share to holders. This marks the maturation of institutional-grade Ethereum staking products, attracting more institutional capital.

Shift in withdrawal sentiment

On-chain data shows that in the past 24 hours, CEXs have a net outflow of 4,056.15 ETH, with Coinbase Pro outflows of 5,827.95 ETH and Binance outflows of 2,716.56 ETH. This indicates that withdrawal sentiment among investors is recovering, with funds flowing from exchanges to self-custody or staking contracts, further confirming long-term holding intentions.

Technical breakthroughs and catalyst accumulation

Price breaks three-month downtrend

ETH has broken through a three-month downtrend. Analysts generally believe that once the price returns to the $3,500–$3,600 range, a new trend-driven rally could be triggered. If ETH breaks above $3,300, the total liquidation of short positions on major CEXs could reach $794 million, suggesting further upside potential.

Policy and product expectations

Looking ahead, potential catalysts are still accumulating. Expectations for BlackRock’s Ethereum staking ETF approval and the regulatory clarity brought by the US “Market Structure Bill” (also known as the “Clarity Act”) could serve as new drivers. Against the backdrop of limited supply, rising demand, and positive policy outlooks, Ethereum’s price performance in 2026 is being increasingly reassessed by investors.

Summary

The reversal of the staking queue, large institutional lockups, on-chain activity recovery, and technical breakthroughs are happening simultaneously. When supply tightens while demand warms up, coupled with supportive policy expectations, historical patterns suggest this often signals the beginning of a new rally. Of course, crypto markets always carry uncertainties, but based on current on-chain data and capital flows, Ethereum is indeed brewing new opportunities. The key is whether the price can break through the $3,300 threshold; once it does, the subsequent upside could become clearer.