2026-01-07 08:24:00

There is a phenomenon in the trading circle worth discussing. I started to be bullish last week, and as a result, someone cursed at me and unfollowed. This week, they followed back and asked in the comments how to operate in the market. Honestly, the crypto community is often criticized for having low cultural levels. Can we improve our overall quality? Being uneducated is not shameful; lacking manners is.

Trading is fundamentally a serious matter. Whether you like someone or dislike someone, following or unfollowing is just a click; there's no need for all the drama. This industry is already complicated enough; what we truly need is mutual respect. No need for flattery, and no need to belittle each other.

Recently, someone asked again about the pattern at the beginning of the month. I’ve been using this methodology since May last year. The core logic is that the sell-off at the start of the month can generally be considered a bottom. This approach is relatively stable in a bull market, but once a bear market arrives, it may not work as well. Since September and October this year, the market rhythm has clearly changed.

Honestly, the real bull market basically ended when the interest rate cut was implemented in August. I was firmly bearish from 80,000, but then new highs appeared, which shook my judgment a bit. In the end, I still established a short position and issued a warning, shorting from 115 and making nearly 20,000 dollars.

Then, based on the idea of the first week of the month, I went long in October and November at this timing, suffering two losses in a row. This fully demonstrates that any trading plan will eventually become a new problem to solve. For friends who lost money during that period because of this strategy, I can only say I’m sorry. Trading involves both profits and losses—that’s a fundamental rule.

But if we extend the cycle and re-analyze from May last year, the results may not necessarily be losses. Looking back at history, which bottoms I predicted that you didn’t see a warning for? The early August level, the mid-October 592 low on the 1-minute chart, the April bottom during negative news, the range judgment on October 27, and the recent bottom signals at 80,000 and 86 are all publicly known—this is just within the past month.

Therefore, trading is a long-term game; we need to have a broad perspective. As the saying goes, “Long-term vision is the key,” don’t judge heroes based on temporary successes or failures.

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AlphaLeaker

· 7h ago

This kind of person is truly unbelievable. A few days ago, they were calling you an idiot, and now they come around to ride the signal. Don't they have any sense? Well said. The crypto circle's ecosystem really needs a brain wash; otherwise, everyone will just become a cash machine. The logic from the first week of the month was indeed flawed. The market has changed, yet some still insist on sticking to the old approach. That's no longer feasible these days. From bearish at 80,000 to now, it really takes resolve. Most people have already been liquidated. Friends who lost money in the past two months shouldn't blame themselves too much. Who hasn't experienced strategy failure? The key is to learn to iterate. Looking at it over a longer cycle, it doesn't hurt as much. Short-term fluctuations are really nothing. There are so many bottom-fishing signals, but I'm just worried some people are blind to see them, and then later they say there was no warning. Long-term investing is definitely the way to go, but most retail investors simply can't sit still. They want to cut losses after just a week or two.

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HashRateHustler

· 20h ago

That's quite right, character really is key. But speaking of which, this circle is just like this, probably won't change much The main thing is to keep your mindset and not let emotions drive you. Long-term traders know this That logic of the first week of the month has been posted before, opinions vary on the results, bull and bear transitions are different Going from 80,000 short to 115,000 directly is a wake-up call, that's the real meaning of trading. How many can withstand this? Trading is like this, losing money is just tuition, everyone makes wrong judgments at times. No one to blame From a long-term perspective, your bottom-fishing signals have indeed been quite accurate. Trust this logic But honestly, to avoid getting cut, you need to improve your own understanding. Relying on others' signals is always a gambler's mindset This mindset is worth learning, broad vision is not just talk

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ChainMemeDealer

· 01-07 08:54

Some people really treat trading as a game, criticizing and then turning around to ask for advice. This move is absolutely top-notch. Discipline really needs to be cultivated; don't always act so frivolously. At the end of the day, methodology still depends on the cycle. Losing money in a month and then complaining is just too shortsighted. To be honest, people who chase highs and sell lows are often not because they don't understand, but because they lack the psychological resilience. Looking at the longer cycle is the real principle, and I agree with that.

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GasFeeNightmare

· 01-07 08:53

That's right, unfollowing and then following again with this routine is really ridiculous. Good manners start with oneself. The logic used in the first week of the month is definitely not a cure-all. Even in a bear market, things can still go wrong. I've also fallen into that trap. Making some profit when 115 was available, but those two long positions in October really resulted in big losses. This is what trading should look like, right? Looking at the bigger picture, it's not that bad. Don't always focus on one or two losses. That's the annoyance in the crypto world—always thinking about short-term turnaround. No one wants to wait.

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MerkleDreamer

· 01-07 08:53

That's right, this circle indeed needs to have some quality. Don't just curse and unfollow every time, then turn around and ask about the market again—it's a bit ridiculous. In fact, in the long run, mutual respect is essential. There's no need for so much drama; we're all in the same boat. I also used the same logic at the beginning of the month. The bull market is indeed stable, but when it turns to a bear market, you need to change your approach. That's the most realistic aspect of trading. From shorting at 80,000 to 115, then losing twice in October and November, it really shows the point. There is no 100% perfect strategy, only continuous adjustment. Looking at the longer cycle, it's a different story. The bottom signals have appeared multiple times—August, October, and the recent 86. Those are the things we should focus on. To put it simply, trading is a game of time. Don't completely deny it because of one or two losses. Only over the long term can the true results be seen.

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 01-07 08:53

Haha, after all the scolding, you're back asking again—really impressive. The crypto community's social behavior is just like this. There are too many people who judge heroes based on success or failure in a short period and a specific place; only long-term results truly reveal the truth. The shorting in August was indeed stable, but the subsequent fluctuations helped us better understand the risks. The set of strategies at the beginning of the month didn't work this year, and we have to accept that. Quality is easy to talk about, but in the crypto ecosystem, it's easy to lose control, I understand. Unfollowing is just unfollowing; there's no need to go back and forth over this. Looking at the long-term results, the picture is indeed different. Many people like to magnify a month's losses. Since the statistics from May until now, there have been quite a few points where I stepped in; that's a fact. Trading is something you have to accept—whether you make money or lose, it's part of the pattern.

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AirdropCollector

· 01-07 08:38

This really hit home for me. Indeed, some people in the crypto circle have questionable qualities. I've seen too many cases of people cursing and then unfollowing right after. That's right. Short-term losses don't mean the strategy itself is flawed. In the long run, it's a different story. I also used that logic in the first week of the month before. I've definitely stepped on some mines. During September and October, I felt the market rhythm changed. From a bearish view at 80,000 all the way to 115,000 and then bearish again—how strong must one's psychological resilience be? It's a bit outrageous, but I respect it. Exactly. Making profits and incurring losses are normal. Looking at returns over a longer time frame is the right approach. Those who are anxious are losing big money.

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BoredWatcher

· 01-07 08:35

It's a quality issue... Indeed, we need to reflect carefully, or how can we turn around in the crypto world? That's right, being right or wrong in the short term doesn't really matter; looking at the long term is the real skill. I've been using the pattern from the first week of this month, but recently it hasn't been very effective; the market has become increasingly surreal. Looking back from 80,000, I was actually shaken too, but following your approach, I managed to catch a few opportunities. The main thing is to control risk and mindset well; don't let a couple of losses blow up your confidence. The most annoying thing in the crypto world is people like that—criticize you and then come back asking... how can they be so contradictory? In the long run, it's not that bad; just worried that beginners can't see this clearly and end up messing around based on short-term results.

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