2026-01-07 08:22:46

Bitcoin started January with a strong performance but experienced fluctuations. From the local high of $947,000 on Monday, January 5th, many traders began to wonder whether this level could hold. Some analyses suggest a significant possibility of a pullback to $806,000, mainly based on the liquidation buildup above $945,000 and the dense liquidation zone below $840,000.

In fact, after the high on Monday, Bitcoin did decline, falling by 2.40%, with a current price of $925,000 at the time of writing. But this shouldn't be overly pessimistic—on-chain data tells a different story.

**Clues from Stablecoin Inflows**

The most direct signal comes from the ratio of Bitcoin to stablecoins. During the December correction, stablecoins on exchanges continued to flow in, even as BTC prices declined. What does this mean? It indicates that money is waiting for opportunities in the market. By early January, this ratio showed a clear increase, suggesting that the deployment phase of capital has already begun.

**Capital Flows Are Key**

From December 26 to January 3, what was the state of capital flow in the market? Net outflows. In other words, realized losses exceeded profits, with December 26 reaching a peak of pressure. But the turning point came over that weekend—capital flows reversed to a slight positive, with realized profits slightly surpassing losses for the first time. This bullish shift was confirmed by on-chain data.

Even more interesting is Bitcoin’s profit and loss ratio. The 7-day moving average of this indicator was below 1 for most of December, but now it has risen above 1, specifically to 1.78. What does this number imply? It indicates an improving overall sentiment among holders.

**Supply Side Support**

Additionally, don’t forget that the circulating supply of Bitcoin is decreasing—large holders are accumulating, not rushing to sell. Coupled with recent continuous inflows into ETFs, all these factors point toward a potential continued rise in Bitcoin over the coming weeks.

**Current Situation**

Bitcoin has already gained 6% in January so far, and participation from off-chain capital reflects that market buying power is still present. However, it’s important to note that these capital flows have not yet fully filled the gap caused by December’s decline, which is why the rebound, although promising, still requires further confirmation.

BTC-2.04%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

14 Likes

Reward
14
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

ContractFreelancer

· 01-07 08:51

The crazy inflow of stablecoins is still falling, this is the real signal. --- Basically, big players are bottom-fishing, retail investors are fleeing. --- Profit and loss ratio is 1.78? Wow, the mentality is indeed shifting. --- But this rebound still depends on the follow-up strength; don’t get too arrogant before the gap is filled. --- ETFs are quietly accumulating again, interesting. --- The accumulation of liquidation is indeed dangerous; if 94.7 doesn’t hold, it could really drop to the 80s. --- When capital flows are weakly positive, they start to hype; let’s wait for confirmation before saying anything. --- Whether big investors holding coins will dump depends on how things develop later; too optimistic. --- A 6% increase is actually still filling the gap, don’t be fooled, everyone. --- This wave of Bitcoin is just capital waiting for prey to bite.

View OriginalReply0

WagmiWarrior

· 01-07 08:50

Are stablecoins quietly flowing in? This is getting interesting, big funds are gathering strength. On-chain data doesn't lie; a positive mindset is indeed reflected in the profit and loss ratio. Wait, can 94% hold steady? I'm still a bit hesitant. This rebound has good momentum, but we need to watch further; the December pit hasn't been fully filled yet. Large holders accumulating coins are planning to keep holding, so I won't rush to sell either.

View OriginalReply0

ValidatorViking

· 01-07 08:32

stablecoin inflows don't lie—whales been accumulating while retail panicked in december. that 1.78 p&l ratio is the real validator set mentality shift right there. consensus is firming up.

Reply0

ProxyCollector

· 01-07 08:28

Stablecoin inflow + big players not dumping, this combination has something special --- On-chain data is all positive, but why still worry about a pullback to the 80s --- A profit-loss ratio of 1.78, this data has indeed reversed from the despair in December --- A 6% increase doesn't seem much, but the process of filling the gap has to be slow and steady --- Is the continuous ETF inflow real, or is it just the prelude to being cut again --- Can 94.7 hold steady? It feels like playing a heartbeat game --- Capital flow is turning positive, indicating that smart money has finally started to move

View OriginalReply0

Frontrunner

· 01-07 08:25

Stablecoin inflows are back again, it feels like big funds are really lurking --- Profit and loss ratio 1.78, sentiment has improved, but how far this rebound can go remains to be seen --- Holders are not selling off their coins, ETFs are still entering, this rhythm is a bit interesting --- From 94.7 to 92.5, the decline isn't big, no big problem right --- On-chain data tells a story, but the short-term gap hasn't been filled yet, this is a signal --- Capital flow has shifted from net outflow to positive, the critical moment has truly arrived --- A 6% increase sounds significant, but it's still a bit short of the end of December --- Large holders are not selling off, indicating they want to keep playing, which is a good sign --- The pressure from liquidation accumulation is indeed high, is 800,000 really possible? --- The stablecoin ratio is rising, capital deployment is starting, it feels like a rally is coming

View OriginalReply0

probably_nothing_anon

· 01-07 08:24

Stablecoin inflows are really a good sign, this time is different --- Wait, big whales are hoarding coins but not dumping, what does this imply? --- On-chain data looks good, but only if $947,000 can hold steady is it truly solid --- The blood loss in December is now starting to reverse, it's a bit interesting --- The profit-loss ratio of 1.78 still feels like it needs more observation, not quite solid --- I've been optimistic about ETF inflows, but the rebound needs to be confirmed several more times --- A 6% increase is good, but still far from filling the gap --- Capital reflow can improve sentiment, but it hasn't been fully confirmed yet --- The $806,000 retracement risk definitely needs to be guarded against --- Big whales are hoarding, retail investors are asking whether to buy, a classic game of strategy

View OriginalReply0