Tonight at 21:15, the US December ADP employment data will be released. Known as the "small non-farm" report, it hides the clues to the Federal Reserve's next policy move.

The ADP report, compiled from payroll data of approximately 400,000 private companies nationwide, is an important early indicator before the official non-farm employment report is published. Market expectations are that the private sector will add 47,000 jobs in December—initially looking decent, but compared to the "plunge" in November, the rebound potential is actually quite limited.

**Last month's cold water**
The November ADP report dropped a bombshell: private sector employment plummeted by 32,000, the largest single-month decline since March 2023. Economists had forecast a gain of 10,000 jobs, making this stark contrast a direct slap in the face. Even more painfully, layoffs were concentrated in small businesses—companies with fewer than 50 employees cut 120,000 jobs in one go, the worst single-month performance since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020. Companies with 20-49 employees couldn't withstand the pressure, reducing 74,000 jobs directly.

**Industry-wide pressure**
Job losses are not isolated incidents. Professional services and business sectors lost 26,000 jobs, information services disappeared with 20,000 jobs lost, and manufacturing shrank by 18,000. Even cyclical-resistant industries like construction and finance were not spared. The extent of this impact can be seen clearly from the data.

The market is waiting, waiting for this data to tell us: Is the labor market truly weakening, or is this just a technical adjustment?