Coinbase Research Director Warns: 1/3 of Bitcoin Faces Quantum Attack Risks, Is Your Asset Safe?

Recently, Coinbase Global Investment Research Director David Duong issued a warning that has shaken the industry: as quantum computing technology accelerates, the long-term security of Bitcoin is entering “unknown waters.”

He specifically pointed out that since the public keys of related wallets are already exposed on the chain, about one-third of the Bitcoin supply may face structural risks from quantum attacks in the future.

01 Quantum Computing Alert

The threat of quantum computing has evolved from distant theoretical speculation to an imminent real risk. In his latest analysis, David Duong clearly states, “The risks brought by quantum computing are significantly underestimated by the current crypto market, which is approximately $33 trillion in size.”

This warning is not unfounded; BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management firm, explicitly listed quantum computing as a risk factor in the revised prospectus of the iShares Bitcoin Trust submitted in May 2025.

This indicates that mainstream financial institutions are beginning to take this long-term threat seriously.

The fundamental difference between quantum computers and traditional computers lies in their use of quantum mechanics principles to process information, enabling exponential speedups for certain specific problems. For a cryptographic world that relies on security, this poses a potential foundational challenge.

Bitcoin’s security architecture is built on two pillars: the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm used for transaction signing and the SHA-256 hash algorithm used in proof-of-work mining.

02 Dual Attack Vectors

The threat of quantum computers to Bitcoin mainly manifests in two levels, and these two major risks could rewrite the entire security and economic model of the cryptosphere.

First is the direct threat to wallet security. Many transactions on the Bitcoin network expose public key information on the blockchain. Once quantum computers mature, attackers could potentially use Shor’s algorithm to derive private keys from publicly available public keys.

This means attackers could directly steal Bitcoin assets from these addresses.

Second is the structural risk to mining efficiency. Quantum computers are expected to significantly improve the efficiency of solving Bitcoin’s proof-of-work puzzles through Grover’s algorithm.

If a single entity gains this quantum mining capability, it could undermine Bitcoin’s decentralization and even launch a 51% attack.

David Duong emphasizes that, compared to the economic model risks posed by quantum mining, the security of signatures is more urgent and core. Quantum mining is still limited by scale, but migrating signatures is an imminent challenge.

03 Quantifying Vulnerable Assets

How many Bitcoin assets are at risk? The latest data shows that approximately 6.51 million Bitcoins (about 32.7% of the total supply) may be threatened by quantum attacks.

These vulnerable assets are mainly concentrated in the following types of addresses:

• Early Bitcoin addresses that pay directly to public keys, rather than hash values.
• Bare multi-signature scripts exposing multiple participants’ public keys.
• Certain implementations of Taproot structures that may leak public key data.

The common point among these address types is that their public key information has been permanently recorded on the Bitcoin blockchain. Once quantum computers reach sufficient strength, assets in these addresses could face risks.

A large number of long-dormant “zombie coins” are especially worth noting. On-chain analysts point out that over 30% of the Bitcoin supply has not moved for at least five years.

If quantum attacks become a reality, these “sleeping” assets could become prime targets, as owners may have lost their private keys or no longer pay attention to these assets.

04 Community Response

Faced with this potential threat, the crypto community’s reactions are divided. Some believe the risk is imminent, while others advocate a more cautious timeline.

Quantum computing researcher Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Demers predicted in October 2025 that quantum computers could crack Bitcoin’s encryption within 4 to 5 years.

However, skeptics like Blockstream CEO Adam Back believe this threat is exaggerated, and quantum computing technology may still require decades to mature.

Charles Edwards, founder of the Bitcoin quant fund Capriole Investments, warned that without upgrades, the quantum threat could materialize within ten years. This divergence highlights differing industry assessments of the timeline for future risks.

Meanwhile, the technical community has begun actively discussing countermeasures. Bitcoin developers are researching post-quantum signature schemes, and the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has finalized several anti-quantum standards in 2024.

05 Gate Observation and Security Recommendations

Against the backdrop of the gradually emerging quantum computing threat, Gate, a leading crypto asset trading platform, reminds users to reassess their asset security strategies.

How can you determine if your Bitcoin assets are at risk? The key is to check your Bitcoin storage method.

If you are still using old addresses generated by early Bitcoin clients, or have participated in early multi-signature schemes, your assets may be at higher risk than those stored with modern SegWit or the latest Bitcoin Core wallets.

For ordinary holders, practical measures to enhance asset security include:

• Regularly transferring Bitcoin to newly generated addresses, using the latest version of Bitcoin wallet software, which typically employs more secure address generation schemes.
• Considering threshold signatures or multi-signature schemes to diversify risk, avoiding storing large amounts of assets in a single address long-term.
• Staying informed about industry developments, and migrating to more secure storage methods as post-quantum cryptography solutions mature.

It is worth noting that, although the quantum threat is a long-term structural risk, current quantum computers are still far from capable of practically attacking the Bitcoin network.

This warning is more about raising industry awareness of long-term security challenges rather than indicating an immediate crisis.

Future Outlook

The gap in processing power between quantum computers and traditional computers is widening. Experts predict that by 2029, quantum computers could be over 200 times faster than current supercomputers; by 2035, this gap could expand to 10,000 times.

David Duong emphasizes in his report that not all Bitcoins will be immediately threatened. Only addresses that have exposed public keys on the blockchain face direct risk. For users adopting modern best practices, their assets remain secure.

Just as people in the 1990s could hardly imagine how the internet would change the world, we may also be underestimating the potential of quantum computing to reshape the cryptographic universe.

Time is of the essence. The Bitcoin community needs to start planning the migration path toward an anti-quantum era.