Federal Reserve rate cut expectations heat up: January ADP data to be released tonight, market pricing has changed

【Blockchain Rhythm】Tonight at 9:15 PM, the United States will release the December ADP employment data. This data is compiled by the well-known American human resources company Automatic Data Processing and is regarded as an important indicator reflecting the true employment situation in the US, as well as a key reference for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

Before the data is released, market expectations for a rate cut in January have already increased. The CME Federal Reserve Watch tool shows that the probability of a rate cut has risen from 15.5% a week ago to 17.7%; meanwhile, predictions on Polymarket remain relatively conservative, staying at 10%. The difference in probabilities between the two platforms reflects market divergence on policy paths.

For crypto traders, these data and expectations are worth paying attention to—every move by the Federal Reserve directly impacts market liquidity and risk appetite.