#数字资产行情上升 Non-farm payroll data lands, gold still has a chance—2026 macro outlook

Recently, the gold market has been stirring again. When the non-farm payroll data is released, it can instantly move gold prices by thirty or fifty dollars—this thing is basically a "market indicator." The key is how it influences the Federal Reserve's decisions—expectations of rate cuts reduce the cost of holding gold, and the dollar also weakens accordingly, which is a double positive for gold prices. Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations and is strong, it may trigger a short-term pullback, but don’t panic; the medium- to long-term trend remains largely unchanged.

A detail worth noting: the first 30 minutes after the non-farm payroll release is a critical window for setting the direction. Algorithmic trading in the first minute can amplify volatility, leading to flash crashes or trap-outs—be careful not to get shaken out.

Looking at the current market support: 95% of global central banks plan to continue buying gold. The net gold purchase expectation for 2026 is between 750-950 tons, effectively installing a "downside stop-loss" for gold prices. Plus, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates 2-3 times next year, combined with geopolitical risks and dollar credit concerns, safe-haven factors are stacking up, and institutions are optimistic. Leading firms like CITIC and Goldman Sachs have target prices of $4900-$5100 per ounce, indicating overall market optimism.

From an operational perspective, medium- to long-term investors can consider gradually accumulating during non-farm payroll pullbacks, with the $4200-$4300 range being a good entry point. Short-term traders should closely monitor data performance and the $4400-$4600 volatility zone. When prices break above previous highs, go long; if they drop to key support levels, take a light short position—but be sure to strictly stop-loss to prevent being caught off guard during extreme market moves.

Overall, the fundamentals for gold bulls remain solid, but trading rhythm must keep pace with this "super catalyst"—the non-farm payroll data.