#BTC市场分析 Polymarket data has shown a clear shift in sentiment over the past two days. The probability of BTC reaching $100,000 again this year has decreased from 10% on December 21 to 8% on December 23, a 20% drop. Meanwhile, the probability at the $95,000 level has fallen from 32% to 25%, and the risk of falling below $80,000 has increased from 18% to 15%.

This reflects a narrowing of market expectations for further upside. With less than two weeks until the end of the year, BTC is currently fluctuating between $92,000 and $94,000, still over $6,000 away from $100,000. From on-chain fund flows, recent whale activity has become more cautious, with large inflows and outflows relatively balanced, lacking strong incremental capital driving a breakout.

My personal view is that the market’s consensus on reaching $100,000 is indeed weakening, which may imply: first, a short-term decline in risk appetite; second, that institutions might prefer to lock in profits at year-end. However, the $95,000 level still has a relatively high probability, indicating that the market remains optimistic about support around $95,000. It is recommended to monitor exchange fund flows and contract position changes, as these will more intuitively reflect the true stance of institutions than market probability forecasts.