Where exactly is the focus of the current crypto market?

Recently, the situation in Venezuela has been quite intense, with various news flying around. But frankly, these regional events have little actual impact on the crypto space and can only be considered short-term emotional disturbances. Venezuela's oil production capacity has long been significantly reduced, with almost no substantial impact on the global energy landscape, let alone shaking the long-term logic of cryptocurrencies. We've seen many similar black swan events; they often cause a stir, then fade away within a week or two.

The two things that truly require attention are:

First, the upcoming US non-farm payroll report. This data has always been a weather vane for Federal Reserve policy adjustments. If employment growth continues strongly, with new jobs exceeding 200,000, and the unemployment rate remains stable, market expectations for rate cuts this year will continue to decline. Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is just over 16%. If the non-farm data is hawkish, a strong dollar is almost inevitable, and short-term pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum will be difficult to avoid.

Conversely, if the data shows weakness, significantly below market expectations, expectations for rate cuts will rebound quickly, liquidity conditions will improve, and BTC may attempt to retest previous highs.

Second, tariff issues. This could be the biggest variable at the start of the year. The current policy discussions repeatedly mention the possibility of tariffs on major trading partners. If quickly implemented, it will likely temporarily boost inflation expectations, thereby limiting the Fed's room to cut rates and putting pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. But from a medium- to long-term perspective, the actual impact of such trade frictions on the market remains to be seen.

In summary: the recent market rhythm largely depends on the progress of non-farm data and tariff policy implementation. Be cautious but not overly panicked.