Here's what economists are watching for next year—and it matters for your portfolio.

The tariff situation is about to get messier. Right now, companies have been cushioned by frontloaded inventory—basically they rushed to stock up before prices got worse. But that buffer doesn't last forever. Come 2026, when those stockpiles run dry, we'll see the real damage.

What happens next is the critical part: businesses can't absorb the costs indefinitely. They'll start passing more of the pain to consumers through higher prices. That's when inflation pressure builds, purchasing power gets squeezed, and investor sentiment typically shifts.

For crypto and broader markets, this matters because higher consumer price inflation could reshape Fed policy expectations and risk appetite. The timing is key—2025 might feel relatively stable, but the underlying stress is building.

Economists tracking this closely expect the visible fallout to accelerate through mid-2026. That's when real economic adjustment starts, not just financial engineering.