PUMP 7-Day 30% Increase: Can the Surge in Platform Activity and Buybacks Sustain the Momentum?

In the context of the overall weak sentiment in the crypto market, PUMP has recently defied the trend and strengthened, with a total increase of about 30% over the past 7 days, and the latest price around $0.00249. This rebound is not merely a technical bounce but is accompanied by a significant increase in on-chain activity on Pump.fun, with spot and futures trading volumes both rising in tandem. However, it is worth noting that PUMP remains in a deep correction zone, with a nearly 71% retracement from the September all-time high of $0.00881. Whether this rally can evolve into a trend reversal remains uncertain.

The Triple Drivers of the Rebound

Platform activity hits multi-month highs

The on-chain activity of Pump.fun is the core driver of this rebound. According to Dune Analytics data, on December 6th, the platform’s daily trading volume surged to $116 million, significantly higher than the previous normal range of $60-80 million. At the same time, the number of active addresses per day rebounded to over 135,000, protocol 24-hour revenue reached $2.67 million, and on-chain engagement hit multi-month highs.

This increase in activity directly reflects in trading metrics. PUMP’s spot trading volume in the past 24 hours reached $182 million, up 30% week-over-week, while futures trading volume grew by 29% to $101 million. This indicates that the rise is driven by genuine trading demand rather than a low-liquidity one-sided pump.

Platform buyback mechanism provides deflationary support

Pump.fun’s business model is strengthening the fundamentals of PUMP. According to the latest news, the platform has cumulatively repurchased $230 million worth of PUMP tokens, reducing circulating supply by 4.26%. The platform expects annual revenue close to $1 billion in 2025, with over $200 million allocated for buybacks, removing about 10% of the circulating supply from the market.

This ongoing buyback mechanism creates deflationary expectations, providing price support. Especially in the context of the Solana ecosystem applications generating $2.39 billion in annual revenue, up 46% year-over-year, Pump.fun, as one of the leading applications (with revenue surpassing $100 million), has its commercial value validated by the market.

Overall shift in Meme coin market sentiment

A broader background is that Meme coins are becoming a leading indicator of market risk appetite returning by 2026. When Bitcoin and mainstream altcoins see limited gains, Meme coins like PEPE and DOGE rebound first, attracting retail capital. As a Meme coin Launchpad, Pump.fun naturally benefits directly from this shift in sentiment.

The Fragility of the Rebound

Technical confirmation of reversal is still lacking

Although PUMP has broken above the 20-day moving average, the technical outlook remains bearish to neutral. The RSI has risen to around 50, indicating some short-term momentum recovery, but the Bollinger Bands have not expanded significantly, so a trend reversal has not been confirmed. Key support is around $0.0020, with resistance concentrated in the $0.0026–$0.0030 range. If it cannot hold above the 20-day moving average effectively, this rally is more likely to be viewed as a rebound rather than a trend reversal.

Uncertainty in fundamentals

The platform faces potential litigation risks up to $500 million, coupled with controversies over “high exit scam rates,” creating significant uncertainty in the project’s fundamentals. Meme coins themselves are structurally fragile, heavily reliant on speculative capital and social media hype. Once sentiment shifts or new hot topics emerge, funds could quickly withdraw.

Derivatives market shows no signs of aggressive leverage

Although futures trading volume has increased in tandem, open interest has only risen slightly to $64 million, indicating that the derivatives market has not seen aggressive leverage behavior. This suggests that market participants are not fully convinced of this rebound, mainly testing the waters with cautious longs.

Signals from a Larger Perspective

According to Solana’s annual data review, in 2025, the total revenue of the ecosystem applications reached $2.39 billion, including top applications like Pump.fun, Jupiter, Raydium, each surpassing $100 million in revenue. This reflects a shift from “fat protocols” (infrastructure is valuable) to “fat applications” (C-end entry points are valuable). Pump.fun has become one of the most profitable applications precisely because it captures high-traffic, high-frequency Meme coin trading scenarios.

However, this also means that PUMP’s performance is closely tied to the platform’s trading activity. Once Meme coin enthusiasm wanes, platform revenue could plummet, impacting buyback capacity and token prices.

Summary

PUMP’s recent rebound has some fundamental support, especially with increased platform activity and ongoing buyback mechanisms providing tangible backing. But from a technical and market sentiment perspective, it appears more as a bounce than a trend reversal. Investors should closely monitor two key points: first, whether PUMP can effectively hold above the 20-day moving average; second, whether Pump.fun’s trading activity can remain high. If both conditions are met, the rebound could develop into a more sustained rally; otherwise, caution is advised. Overall, in the context of risk appetite returning to Meme coins, PUMP is worth watching, but one should not ignore its high volatility and structural fragility.