Gold's price movement today completely followed the earlier bearish outlook, with the entire day unfolding as a downward trend.

It opened directly at 4500.54, but market sentiment instantly flipped, and the price dropped like a dammed water flow, plunging to 4443.46. Although there was a slight rebound now, it’s still hovering around 4454, down more than 40 points from yesterday’s close.

What is the main culprit behind this wave of decline? The repeated expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates within the year. Recently released economic data has been decent, which started to dispel the idea of aggressive rate cuts, leading to an increase in US Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar, directly suppressing gold. Another issue is the phased recovery of risk assets like US stocks, which reduces the appeal of gold as a safe haven, causing funds to withdraw from the gold market.

Looking at the candlestick chart, gold faced strong selling pressure at the 4500 level, with multiple support levels broken on the 5-minute chart, indicating a clear bearish trend. The 4450 level has temporarily held, but the rebound momentum is weak.

What’s the outlook? If the rebound can break through the resistance zone of 4465-4470, gold may attempt to challenge 4480. Conversely, if 4450 is lost, the next support is around 4430, and if it breaks further, the price could continue to probe lower to the 4410-4400 area.

The trading strategy remains bearish, mainly shorting on rallies. Watch for signs of resistance at 4465-4470 during the rebound, and only enter after confirmation. The initial target below is 4430.