#数字资产行情上升 Many people in the crypto circle say they lost money, with all kinds of reasons. In fact, there are only two main reasons: either they truly don't understand technical analysis, or they are too clever by half, always trying to catch the bottom or top. Over the years, I’ve survived the most "foolish" way — giving up predictions, mechanically following signals, and strictly adhering to discipline.

This method is crude but indeed effective. Beginners who follow these four steps can significantly improve their win rate.

**The first key: Daily MACD golden cross above 0 axis**

I’ve analyzed charts of mainstream coins over three years, and the reliability of this signal is about 68%. When ETH showed this pattern in April 2024, I entered directly, and within three weeks, I saw a 40% increase. It doesn’t sound particularly exaggerated, but stability in win rate is the essence of making money.

Conversely, do not touch the golden cross below the 0 axis. I was trapped by this once two years ago, stuck for two months before breaking free — that was a lesson.

**The second key: 20-day moving average is the life-and-death line**

When the price breaks above it, try a small position. Once it falls below, forget everything else and cut all positions immediately. Last year, when SOL dropped from 120 to 110, I forced myself to sell. I felt terrible at the time, but three days later, it dropped to 90. That’s when I understood what "decisive rescue" means. Not wanting to accept that small loss often leads to bigger hits later.

**The third key: Position size must follow rules**

Don’t enter randomly. Only add when there’s a volume breakout — for example, BTC breaking through $60,000 with high volume. The maximum position size normally is 50%, and the rest of the funds should be reserved. Take profit mechanically: take out one-third when earning 40%, another third at 80%, and let the remaining position trail with a moving stop-loss. When I traded ADA, I followed this discipline, turning 5,000 USD into 12,000 USD.

**The fourth key: Stop-loss must be instinctive**

Cut immediately when the moving average is broken. Don’t give yourself the chance to "wait a bit," that’s self-deception. During ETC’s drop from $15 to $8, I was soft-hearted, dragging it down, watching my holdings shrink. The final lesson: a margin call isn’t a sudden event; it’s built up from repeated "wait a bit" moments.

**In summary**

Choose the right signals, stick to the moving averages, control your position size, and execute stop-loss ruthlessly. Those who make money are never the ones who think they’re smart, but those who can stick to simple rules.

A few beginners I mentor have used this seemingly "foolish" method to grow their 5,000 USD to 130,000 USD in half a year. It’s not some black technology — it’s about avoiding detours and shortcuts, which ironically becomes the most solid shortcut.