Ethereum's breakout was suppressed by $970 million in sell-offs, and the game between whales and long-term holders will determine the short-term trend.

Ethereum technicals show positive signals as the price successfully breaks out of a two-month descending wedge pattern, which theoretically suggests a potential 29.5% upside. However, just as the trend begins to emerge, it encounters heavy whale sell-offs. In the past three days, large wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million ETH have collectively sold 300,000 ETH, valued at approximately $970 million at current prices. This tug-of-war between liquidity and technical signals has become a key variable influencing Ethereum’s current trajectory.

Technical Breakout vs Selling Pressure

Breakout Pattern Signals Bullish Momentum

After weeks of consolidation, Ethereum’s technical structure has significantly improved. The successful breakout from the descending wedge is often seen as a sign of a potential reversal, attracting short-term capital back into the market. According to quick data, the breakout pattern theoretically corresponds to a 29.5% upside. At the current price of $3,250, the target price is around $4,061.

From a more immediate short-term perspective, key support and resistance levels are as follows:

Whale Sell-off Timing and Scale

Whales tend to sell at critical technical junctures, which is noteworthy. Large holders often prefer to realize profits when market sentiment improves and prices rebound. While this behavior doesn’t necessarily reverse the trend, it can significantly suppress upward momentum in the short term. The concentrated sell-off of $970 million adds to market liquidity, exerting real pressure on subsequent price gains.

Market intelligence also indicates that savvy traders are taking profits through swing trading. For example, a smart money address bought 2,968 ETH at an average of $2,938 on December 28 and sold all at $3,210 on January 6, netting approximately $807,000 in a week. This demonstrates that the market faces both substantial selling pressure and precise profit-taking.

Support from Long-term Holders

Despite whale selling, another force provides support. According to quick data, since late December 2025, Ethereum’s activity metrics have declined significantly, indicating that more ETH held by long-term investors is in a dormant state. Long-term holders have not sold in large quantities despite the rebound, choosing instead to continue holding.

This structure typically helps to:

• Reduce market volatility
• Decrease available supply for sale
• Hedge against some whale selling impacts
• Provide a foundation for price rebounds

Additional reports show that a whale deposited $12.5 million USDC into HyperLiquid and placed orders to open a long position of 3,500 ETH (about $11 million) between $3,190 and $3,215. This suggests that large bullish funds are also accumulating on dips.

Key Short-term Watchpoints

Ethereum is currently at a stage where technical bullish signals coexist with liquidity-driven selling pressure. In the near term, focus should be on:

• Whether $3,287 can hold firmly, which will directly influence the continuation of upward momentum
• Whether whale selling continues to intensify, affecting market liquidity
• Whether long-term holders remain committed, which will determine the strength of support below

If new demand cannot fully absorb the selling pressure, ETH may face short-term consolidation or a correction. A break below $3,131 could lead to further declines toward $3,000 or $2,902, with the current technical breakout considered a failure if that support is breached.

Summary

Ethereum’s current situation can be summarized as a stark contrast between technical breakout signals and selling pressure from whales. The ongoing battle between whales and long-term holders will largely determine whether ETH continues its rebound or shifts into a consolidation phase. From a trading perspective, $3,287 is the most critical support level; whether it holds or not will directly influence the subsequent trend. Market participants should closely monitor this key level and stay updated on whale activity.