CLARITY Act to be reviewed by the Senate on January 15th, a critical moment for crypto regulation. How industry disagreements will impact the market

The “boots” of U.S. crypto regulation are about to land. The Senate Banking Committee will vote on the Digital Asset Market Transparency Act (CLARITY Act) on January 15. This bill, regarded as the core legislation shaping the structure of the U.S. crypto market, is in the final stage of political negotiations. However, disagreements over key provisions such as DeFi regulation, stablecoin yields, and others have led to a clear divide in industry outlooks on its passage.

Partisan Disagreements Remain the Biggest Variable

Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott has explicitly stated that a formal vote will take place next week, providing procedural certainty for the bill’s progress. But the political reality is more complex. According to the latest feedback after a bipartisan senator meeting, Republicans want to push forward quickly, while Democrats are still negotiating to include multiple amendments.

Galaxy Digital Research Director Alex Thorn remains cautious or even somewhat pessimistic about the short-term prospects of the bill passing. He notes that whether a true bipartisan consensus can be reached remains uncertain. These disagreements are reflected in specific provisions:

Why Industry Opinions Are Divided

Industry insiders have differing views on whether the bill will pass. Scott Johnson, partner at Van Buren Capital, believes that without bipartisan support, the bill may require more hearings and negotiations to reach a compromise. He warns that rushing to push through a flawed bill close to an election cycle could have long-term negative impacts.

Salman Banaei, General Counsel at Plume, also expresses concern about next week’s review outcome, suggesting that if the current version is seen as the “final plan,” Democratic support may be limited. Conversely, Gabriel Shapiro, founder of MetaLex, remains optimistic, believing that the U.S. is not far from officially passing the crypto market structure legislation.

Why the Market Is Paying Attention to This Moment

Market reactions indicate that policy certainty is becoming a key catalyst for institutional entry. According to the latest reports, the market currently estimates a 69% chance that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law before May. Goldman Sachs’ latest report states that U.S. crypto market structure legislation will be a core catalyst for large-scale institutional adoption of crypto assets by 2026.

This expectation is already reflected in asset prices. Bitcoin has rebounded from $87,000 at the start of the year to over $94,000, an increase of over 7%. While analysts believe that regulatory clarity may not immediately push prices higher in the short term, establishing a policy framework means that:

• Project teams can operate compliantly within a clear framework, reducing sudden enforcement risks
• Regulatory risk premiums decrease, benefiting long-term valuation
• Fields like DeFi, stablecoins, and RWA tokenization will have room to develop
• Systematic institutional capital allocation becomes possible

Pressure from Key Deadlines

It is worth noting that while January 15 is the voting date for the Senate Banking Committee, the real deadline is mid-January. This means lawmakers must resolve complex issues such as DeFi regulation and the division of authority between the SEC and CFTC within a very short timeframe.

Given the tight schedule, this review is not only a vote on the bill’s provisions but also the final shaping of the U.S. crypto regulatory framework. Once approved by the Senate Banking Committee, the likelihood of the bill moving to a full Senate vote increases significantly, which is why this moment is viewed as a “critical node.”

Summary

The direction of the CLARITY Act will profoundly impact the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory framework, DeFi compliance requirements, and stablecoin policy expectations. In the short term, the January 15 Senate vote is a key watershed—whether the bill can overcome partisan divides will directly determine policy certainty for the crypto market in 2026. Although industry opinions are clearly divided on the outlook, one point of consensus is evident: the implementation of a clear policy framework is more important than the specific details of the provisions. This means that regardless of the final version passed, policy clarification will serve as a crucial catalyst for institutional capital to enter the crypto market. In the coming week, market focus will be tightly centered on the political negotiations in the Senate.