The risk of Trump's impeachment rising, midterm elections become the life and death line for crypto legislation

Trump openly stated in a closed-door speech to House Republicans that if the Republican Party loses in the upcoming midterm elections, he is “very likely to be impeached again.” This statement not only reflects the high level of polarization in current American politics but also exposes the Republican Party’s anxiety about the election prospects. More importantly, the outcome of the midterm elections will directly determine the prospects of the cryptocurrency market structure bill, which will have far-reaching implications for the industry’s regulatory framework.

Political Risks Rise, Impeachment Threat Becomes Reality

Trump pointed out that if the Democrats regain control of the House, “they will definitely find a reason to impeach me.” This is not unfounded. According to the latest reports, Trump’s approval rating has dropped to about 42%, with some voters dissatisfied with his performance in alleviating rising living costs and handling related controversies. There are also divisions within the Republican Party, further weakening party unity.

Historical Precedents and Current Situation

Trump has already been impeached twice during his first term. The first involved the “Ukraine incident,” and the second related to the “Capitol Hill incident,” but both ultimately resulted in acquittal in the Senate. If he is impeached again this time, the political landscape in the Senate will remain a key variable.

Election Outlook Not Optimistic

According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, the situation does not favor the Republicans:

This means that while the Republicans have a chance to retain the Senate, the House is very likely to be taken back by the Democrats. If both chambers are lost, the Republican policy agenda in the two years following Trump’s term will face serious obstacles.

Cryptocurrency Regulation Bill Becomes Focus

One of the biggest bets in the midterm elections is the cryptocurrency market structure bill. This bill aims to clarify the regulatory framework for digital assets in the U.S. and is currently being advanced by the Senate Banking Committee.

Why This Bill Is So Critical

• The progress of the bill depends on the political will of the Senate
• If Democrats regain control of the House, stricter regulations may be introduced
• Trump’s administration has a relatively friendly attitude toward cryptocurrencies, which benefits industry development
• Political uncertainty could delay the bill’s progress and increase market expectation risks

Potential Democratic Attack Strategies

According to the latest reports, some Democratic lawmakers have publicly stated that Trump’s connections with cryptocurrency projects and related private activities could become new targets for attack. This means that if Democrats gain control, cryptocurrency regulation could become more stringent.

Future Outlook: Uncertainty Dominates

The midterm elections are crucial, scheduled for November. The election includes all House seats and about one-third of the Senate seats.

Possible Scenarios

If the Republicans lose both the House and Senate, Trump will face increased impeachment risks, and the cryptocurrency bill could stall or be pushed toward stricter regulation. Conversely, if the Republicans retain the Senate, even if they lose the House, there is still room for the bill to advance.

Current election forecasts are unfavorable for the Republicans, but with nearly 10 months until November, the political landscape remains uncertain. Trump’s approval rating has been rising (from a low point to 42%), but reversing the overall electoral pressure will still take time.

Summary

Trump’s impeachment risk warnings reflect the Republican Party’s genuine anxiety. The midterm elections are not only about the future direction of U.S. politics but also directly impact the formulation of cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks. Current polling favors the Democrats, which means the cryptocurrency industry faces policy uncertainty. Investors and industry participants need to closely monitor election developments, as the November results could fundamentally change the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies. Against the backdrop of political game-playing, the fate of the crypto legislation remains uncertain.