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Pullbacks are often meant to build strength for subsequent rallies, so there's no need to over-interpret last night's downward adjustment. Many people see slight market fluctuations and change their strategies accordingly, but doing so can easily lead to being passive. In my opinion, this kind of small consolidation is really nothing in the face of a true bull market. If even this minor adjustment can scare you into panic, it shows that your understanding of the trend still needs some maturity.
How do I view the current situation? Before the holiday, my main approach was to maintain a bullish outlook, using minor pullbacks as short-term short-term transitions. All of this is based on technical analysis of the larger cycle. Plus, on the news front, whether it's the international geopolitical situation or the Federal Reserve's possible rate cuts, these factors are generally supporting the coin price. So, combining technical and news analysis, the probability of continued upward movement in the near future remains quite high. Bulls should stay firm, holding onto the long positions built at lower levels, and remain calm for long-term trading.
Let's look at the technical indicators. On the daily chart, Bitcoin's price oscillated at high levels before experiencing a noticeable pullback, with a clear bearish candle indicating selling pressure above. On the hourly chart, the price has gradually declined from the 93,000 range and is now in a consolidation phase after a short-term rebound. The MACD histogram on the hourly remains negative, with DIF and DEA diverging downward, signaling a clear short-term bearish trend. On the daily chart, MACD is also weakening, possibly entering a correction cycle. The RSI on the hourly is around 46, not yet in oversold territory, but the overall weak pattern has already formed; the daily RSI has fallen below 50, indicating diminishing momentum. Looking at the moving averages, the hourly EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120 are arranged in a bearish alignment, with the price currently under EMA7; on the daily, EMA7 has turned downward and may continue to test the EMA30 support.
From a trading perspective, using 91,000 as support, as long as this level holds, the focus remains on upward movement.
Bitcoin trading strategy:
1. Long in the 91,600-92,400 range, with a stop-loss below 90,800, targeting 93,600-94,400; if broken, look toward 97,300.
2. Short in the 95,000-94,200 range, with a stop-loss above 95,800, targeting 93,000-92,200.
Ethereum trading strategy:
1. Long in the 3,190-3,230 range, with a stop-loss below 3,150, targeting 3,340-3,380.
2. Short in the 3,400-3,360 range, with a stop-loss above 3,440, targeting 3,300-3,250.