An investor spent decades studying economic cycles, with a depth of insight surpassing most people in the market. Now in his seventies, he no longer purely chases wealth but focuses on historical standing—after all, his wealth is sufficient, and his age is what it is.

His judgment is: we are at a critical point where a major debt cycle is about to collapse, similar to the eve of World War I and World War II a hundred years ago. Therefore, the next likely scenario is a global debt crisis and armed conflicts.

Honestly, from a numerical perspective, this judgment is well-founded. The debt levels in the US and Japan have already reached astonishing levels, with stockpiles being terrifyingly large, and the incremental deficits continuously expanding. As interest rates keep rising, debt burdens become increasingly heavy. Gold prices are soaring wildly, and Japanese bond yields are climbing steadily—markets are voting with real money.

That investor also proposed a solution: a three-part framework at 3%. But frankly, even he knows that the US government simply cannot implement it. Although the plan is logically perfect, it is inherently against human nature, and given the current political ecology in the US, no one has the courage to push through the right but painful choices. Therefore, a debt crisis is inevitable, and creditors will definitely suffer total losses.

But there is a detail worth discussing: the manifestation of the crisis. Unlike the slight differences from that investor, it is unlikely that the future will resemble the Great Depression of the 1930s, nor will it escalate into a third world war. The truth may be more straightforward—it’s likely that the debt crisis will be "digested" through a significant devaluation of fiat currency. This is the easiest option for governments to implement and the least disruptive to society.