As the US stock market's S&P continues to hit new highs, BTC remains stuck around the 94,500 level, unable to break through smoothly. In this wave of market movement, short-term traders who previously positioned themselves at the lower range of 83,300-87,000 are now showing a paper profit of 10 points, and naturally, they are looking for exit opportunities.

From this perspective, it is quite normal for the price to fluctuate back and forth between 90,500 and 95,000. After a round of profit-taking pressure from short-term holders is released, the situation becomes relatively balanced. This is not a bad thing; rather, it is a healthy process of turnover. Recently, MSTR continues to be included in the MSCI index, which, while not enough to ignite market enthusiasm, at least prevents cold water from being poured on the market.

The next variables mainly come from the macro level. January is a critical window for the subsidy negotiations of the Affordable Care Act. If negotiations stall, it could trigger a chain reaction—leading to another deadlock in government budget talks, and in the worst case, a government shutdown risk re-emerges at the end of January. If resolved smoothly, the risks naturally dissipate.

As for the January interest rate cut expectations, the market has already priced in the "no rate cut" scenario, so the actual impact may not be that significant. What is truly worth paying attention to are the movements of Trump's new fiscal team and the pace of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion. These liquidity-related changes will gradually release their effects over time.

The current logic is clear: bottom oscillation and recovery, with sentiment slowly accumulating positively. The market has always moved step by step, and it won't happen overnight.