In 2026, the global economy faces multiple challenges, and these changes are reshaping the landscape of the crypto market.

Just look at recent data—gold surged by 65%, silver skyrocketed by 149%, but expectations for Bitcoin vary greatly, with some optimistic about reaching $250,000, while others worry it could drop to $25,000. Behind this lies the uncertainty caused by the interplay of three major economic variables.

First is the K-shaped divergence in the US economy. High-income groups continue to buy into crypto ETFs driven by AI wealth effects, while low-income groups are experiencing consumption downgrades. This divide forces policymakers to keep ramping up stimulus measures. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is undergoing its largest personnel changes in forty years. Will the new chair set aside the 2% inflation target? Will interest rates be lowered to 2%-2.5%? Market opinions vary, but a consensus is that abundant liquidity will directly benefit risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Second is the rampant spread of global fiscal capitalism. The US, Japan, and Germany are aggressively issuing debt to stimulate their economies. The debt levels of the G7 countries are flashing red, and inflation pressures caused by excess credit have made gold the "king of safe havens." This also lends new credibility to the story of Bitcoin as "digital gold"—institutional investors (such as Grayscale) are betting on it reaching $250,000. However, the security threat posed by quantum computing remains a looming black swan.

Third is the turning point of the AI revolution. In 2026, AI shifts from money-burning model development to practical commercial applications. The US and China are diverging clearly—America relies on capital-driven closed-source development, while China promotes open-source applications. The integration of AI with Web3 and blockchain has become a new hot spot. The explosion of small enterprise models could activate more on-chain application scenarios, sustaining growth expectations for ETH ecosystem tokens.

Overall, opportunities and risks coexist. If the Federal Reserve signals unexpectedly loose monetary policy, Bitcoin and Ethereum could enjoy a liquidity boom; conversely, insufficient rate cuts and high volatility meme coins might be the first to retrace. Additionally, the implementation of stablecoin regulations and the legalization of RWA (Real-World Assets) will redistribute market weights.

What are your thoughts? Will the Federal Reserve significantly ease policy? Can Bitcoin break through previous highs? Will the integration of AI and Web3 become the biggest trend of 2026? Share your ideas in the comments.