#预测市场 Seeing Kalshi's research report, I have to say this is worth pondering. The accuracy of prediction markets is 40% less than the Wall Street consensus, with the greatest advantage during economic fluctuations — the logic behind this is actually very simple: real monetary incentives are much more reliable than theoretical predictions.

But there's a trap to watch out for. As prediction markets become popular, inevitably someone will try to cash in, and various projects like "prediction mechanism tokens" and "inflation hedging tools" will emerge endlessly. I've seen too many retail investors attracted by the concept of prediction markets, only to find that they are the ones handing money to the whales in the end.

The key is to understand: the advantage of prediction markets comes from participant diversity and genuine incentives, not from the value of any particular project or platform itself. If you see a new project claiming to have "revolutionary predictive ability," chances are it's just hype. Truly effective prediction systems require time to mature, sufficient liquidity, and a large enough participant base — none of which can be artificially created out of thin air.

So my advice is: it's fine to observe this direction and even understand the principles behind prediction markets, but never get brainwashed by stories of "new hot trends." Those who have been in the chain know that the most profitable projects often tell the simplest stories, not the most complex mechanisms.