US employment data is expected to strengthen, and Federal Reserve policy direction becomes a key variable for the crypto market

【Crypto World】Next week’s economic calendar is particularly busy. The US labor market may continue to send positive signals—economists’ median forecast shows that new jobs in December could reach 73,000, up from 64,000 in November. At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to fall from 4.6% to 4.5%, reflecting the resilience of the labor market.

On Wednesday, ADP will release private sector employment data, often referred to by traders as the “small non-farm,” providing some early clues two days in advance. However, frankly, the predictive power of this data has always been controversial, and the market does not treat it as an absolute indicator.

The real highlight comes on Friday—official non-farm payroll data and a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump’s global tariffs may be announced on the same day. Imagine this: on one side, employment data could alter the Fed’s rate cut expectations; on the other, the legal validity of tariff policies remains uncertain. The combination of these two events could cause market turbulence.

From an asset trading perspective, the pricing of interest rates and credit instruments is already firmly anchored by US economic growth, inflation data, and the Fed’s next steps. In other words, data like employment reports have a much greater impact on the bond market than geopolitical events. To draw an analogy with the Venezuela situation—even if conditions change there, only when oil prices rise significantly and this effect propagates to gasoline and overall prices will it enter the market’s view. Currently, this chain is not effectively connected. Simply put, the market’s muted reaction to the Venezuela event is because it does not alter the inflation narrative. But US employment data is different—it directly rewrites the story about growth and inflation.