#预测市场 Seeing the performance data of prediction markets in inflation forecasting, I was reminded of a very important topic.

Over the past 25 months, the average error of prediction markets has been 40% lower than Wall Street consensus forecasts, and during periods of intense economic volatility, it can even exceed 67%. This data does not reflect some magical forecasting ability, but rather the power of "collective intelligence"—when many traders make decisions based on real economic incentives, their collective judgment tends to be more perceptive than that of individual experts.

But what I want to remind everyone is that no matter how accurate a prediction is, it is only a reference and should not be the sole basis for our asset allocation. Prediction markets can help us understand what the market is thinking, but the market itself is volatile and complex. The truly prudent approach should be:

First, maintain a long-term mindset and not let short-term prediction fluctuations influence your allocation rhythm; second, manage your positions well—no matter how accurate the forecast, leave room for mistakes; third, use predictions as a "reference tool" rather than a "decision-making tool," adjusting based on your own risk tolerance.

Safety is always more important than precision. In an era of uncertainty, learning to coexist with uncertainty is more worthwhile than chasing perfect predictions.