What does the rise in US Treasury yields signal? This employment data could be a turning point for the market

【BlockBeats】What is the market watching now? It’s not geopolitical issues, but data.

This Friday’s US December non-farm payroll report will be a key moment. Since the government shutdown ended last year, investors have been eagerly awaiting reliable labor market data. Reports for October and November have been released, but their quality varies, and the bond market is still waiting for a clear signal—whether the Federal Reserve will continue its hawkish stance.

Analysts at Montreal Bank Capital Markets put it straightforwardly: the numbers this Friday might be enough to restore market confidence.

On the same day, there’s another major event—the Supreme Court may rule on the legality of Trump’s global tariffs. Two big events coinciding could lead to significant market volatility.

Even more interesting is the change in the yield curve of government bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield has reached its highest point in nearly nine months compared to the 2-year yield. What does this indicate? Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in 2026. In the long term, the dollar and bonds are bullish, but in the short term, rate cut expectations exist—this contradictory market pricing reflects everyone’s ongoing uncertainty about future economic prospects.

For crypto assets, these signals are very important. The Federal Reserve’s policy direction directly affects the attractiveness of risk assets. If employment data exceeds expectations and the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, high-yield bonds and the dollar will be more competitive; conversely, it could open up room for risk assets to rise.