Gemini's Five Major Predictions for the Year: The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Has Ended, Digital Asset Custody Companies Will Merge to Survive

Mars Finance reports that Gemini Institutional Business Director Patrick Liou has released five major predictions for 2026.

1. The four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead; ETF and institutional adoption are making the market more mature, with volatility decreasing from a historical 80% to 25-40%, and drawdowns only 30% instead of the past 75-90%.
2. Cryptocurrency will become a bipartisan issue in the 2026 US midterm elections, with the CLARITY Act expected to make breakthroughs.
3. The crypto prediction market will expand on a large scale, with Polymarket’s growth attracting players like Coinbase.
4. Digital asset custody companies will merge to survive; MicroStrategy’s huge Q4 loss last year and a 60% plunge in MSTR stock price demonstrate the pressure.
5. At least one country will sell part of its gold reserves to buy Bitcoin; Germany, Sweden, and the Czech Republic have already publicly discussed BTC as a reserve asset.
   Liou believes that 2026 will be driven by institutions, policies, and sovereign capital, rather than speculation cycles.