The weekend rebound was indeed impressive, surging from 90,800 all the way to 94,800, looking like it was about to break through. But then the market hit a double top in the evening, giving a warning sign. After reaching around 94,500, it suddenly plunged down to 91,300, bouncing back and forth in a loop.

From the overall environment, there are some signs of movement in the peripheral regions this week, plus the US and China tensions are heating up, giving the market a bit of an excuse for a rebound. But to be honest, the enthusiasm for a second rate cut has long faded, and market expectations for further rate cuts have cooled down accordingly. This has led institutions to start selling, whales are less active, trading volume has significantly shrunk, and the entire market is just oscillating within a wide range.

On the technical side, the monthly chart has shifted from bearish to neutral, with four consecutive bearish candles. It’s barely showing a bullish candle now but struggling near the mid-line. The weekly chart, despite shrinking volume and two bullish candles in a row, faces significant resistance above, indicating the market still has the potential to continue downward. In the short term, the 95,000 level is a critical resistance point; if it cannot break through, further testing downward is likely. Support levels below are around 84,000, with a smaller support at 88,800 to watch. The four-hour chart has already shifted from bullish to bearish, and the hourly chart is also trending downward.

In terms of trading strategy, since the market is still oscillating within this wide range and the trend remains downward, it’s recommended to gradually establish short positions above the 94,000-95,000 zone. The target below is around 89,000-85,000.

But no matter how the market moves, risk management always comes first. Never get carried away by small rebounds; protecting your holdings is the key to coming out on top in the end.