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On the day of a popular event, retail investors flock to the same side, pushing the price up. But what are the real winners doing?
They don't guess the outcome.
They don't analyze fundamentals.
They just wait for the market to distort the order book.
When the crowd is frantically chasing one side, the implied probability is inflated—far higher than the actual win rate. At this moment, they stand on the other side, using the right size to absorb this deviation.
This is no longer about betting on wins or losses.
It's about harvesting the premium of the crowd's confidence.
The same logic applies in the crypto world: retail chasing hot topics, capital piling in, prices artificially inflated, risks concentrated. Seeing through this bias is the key to stable profits.