EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds as Support Holds Above 1.1650

Current Market Position and Fundamental Drivers

The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1755 during Friday’s early European hours, displaying sustained strength above critical technical levels. The recent ECB policy decision has bolstered the Euro, with the central bank maintaining its current rate stance while signaling a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments. ECB President Christine Lagarde reinforced the institution’s commitment to a data-driven strategy, explicitly ruling out predetermined rate guidance. This measured stance contrasts with market expectations of rate stability extending through 2026.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar faces headwinds from developing political dynamics. With President Donald Trump signaling intentions to appoint a dovish Federal Reserve leader following Jerome Powell’s term conclusion in May, market participants anticipate potential pressure on USD valuations. Trump’s public statements emphasizing lower interest rate preferences could amplify concerns regarding central bank independence, creating favorable conditions for the major pair’s appreciation.

Technical Setup and Key Levels

The daily timeframe reveals a constructive configuration. EUR/USD maintains its position above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1635, a critical support level that continues to slope upward. This positioning preserves the medium-term uptrend bias.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 59.8, demonstrating advancing momentum while remaining comfortably below overbought thresholds, leaving room for further advancement. The Bollinger Band structure shows price trading above the midline at 1.1738, with narrowing bands suggesting diminished volatility following the recent recovery phase.

Price Targets and Trading Levels

Resistance emerges at 1.1820, the upper Bollinger Band, representing the primary barrier to further upside expansion. A decisive daily close beyond this level could trigger additional gains. Conversely, support materializes at 1.1655 near the lower band, with the 100-day EMA at 1.1635 serving as the secondary defense zone.

Market Perspective

The technical setup continues to favor dip-buying strategies until volatility patterns shift. For traders monitoring broader currency dynamics—similar to how NZD to USD forecast models track cross-pair relationships—EUR/USD presents a compelling risk-reward scenario with clear technical anchors guiding directional bias.