$2.246 billion vs $762 million: What does the threefold difference in BTC liquidation intensity imply?

According to the latest data, the liquidation surface of BTC shows a clear asymmetric structure. If BTC breaks through $96,538, the liquidation strength of mainstream CEX short positions will reach $2.246 billion; conversely, if it falls below $87,783, the long position liquidation strength will be only $762 million. Behind this threefold difference in strength, it reflects the current market’s true attitude.

Liquidation Data Interpretation

Upward vs. downward liquidation strength comparison

From the data, the upward liquidation strength far exceeds the downward. This indicates that the market has larger short positions, and once the price breaks upward, forced liquidations of shorts will create a stronger liquidity shock. In contrast, the long liquidation strength when breaking downward is relatively moderate.

The implication of the current price position

As of press time, BTC is around $91,774.93. This position is between the two key trigger points, with about $4,764 (approximately 5.2%) of space from the upward trigger point of $96,538, and a buffer of $4,000 (about 4.5%) from the downward trigger point of $87,783.

Looking at recent trends, BTC has fallen 2.33% in the past 24 hours but still increased by 3.99% over 7 days, indicating that despite short-term adjustments, the overall trend remains unchanged. This slight downward oscillation in a turbulent market just keeps the market in a relatively balanced state.

Market Structure Inference

Why is the short liquidation strength so large?

The difference in liquidation strength reflects the true position structure of market participants. The short liquidation strength is three times that of longs, indicating two phenomena:

• Concentrated shorting power: There are large-scale short positions in the market, possibly due to concerns about high-level risks or short-term profit-taking.
• Longs are dominant but dispersed: Traders holding longs are in the majority (based on the upward trend), but their positions are relatively scattered, limiting the impact of individual liquidation events.

This structure is common in bull markets, with many small retail traders holding positions, and a few institutions or big players hedging with shorts.

Insights from historical comparison

According to relevant information, on January 4th, BTC was around $93,000, and the short liquidation strength breaking through $93,000 was only $528 million. In just a few days, the liquidation strength increased to $2.246 billion, indicating that short positions in the market are rapidly accumulating. This may reflect traders’ cautious attitude toward the recent rally.

Meanwhile, the open interest of Bitcoin contracts on CME and Binance was also rising in sync, with CME rebounding from $9 billion to over $10 billion, and Binance increasing from $11.3 billion to $12.2 billion. This shows that although shorts are increasing, overall market participation is also rising, with both institutions and retail increasing their positions.

What traders should pay attention to

Risks of upward breakout

If BTC truly breaks through $96,538, the $2.246 billion short liquidation will trigger a strong buying wave. This could push prices higher but also means that once broken, the market will experience a rapid stop-loss liquidation, significantly increasing volatility. For long traders, this is an opportunity to profit, but they should also beware of false breakouts.

The relatively mild downside breakdown

The $762 million long liquidation strength is relatively small, indicating that when falling below $87,783, the liquidity shock will be much milder. This may mean the downside space is relatively “comfortable,” making it less likely to form a rapid waterfall decline. Conversely, it also suggests that market participants have a relatively low risk expectation for downside.

Personal opinion

From the perspective of liquidation data, the current market structure leans bullish. Although shorts are accumulating, their scale is limited and highly concentrated, making them susceptible to liquidity shocks. This asymmetric liquidation structure often indicates that the market will move strongly in one direction—upward breakout. However, this is not guaranteed; the market may still oscillate in the middle until shorts gradually give up.

Summary

BTC’s liquidation surface data reveals the market’s true attitude: the bullish force is stronger, but short positions are larger and more concentrated. The upward liquidation strength of $2.246 billion is three times the downward strength of $762 million, indicating a clear asymmetry in the market structure. The current price at $91,774 is between the two key trigger points, and traders should closely monitor these levels. If it breaks above $96,538, a strong liquidity impact is expected; if it falls below $87,783, the risk is relatively manageable. Regardless of the direction, the liquidation data provides clear reference points for traders.