BNB continues to weaken; failure to defend $844 may accelerate decline… Technical and chain indicators weaken simultaneously

Weakening Technical Momentum and Chain Reactions of Bearish Signals

BNB is currently trading around $900.60, with the daily RSI as of Tuesday at 39, continuing to decline below the neutral line. This indicates increasing selling pressure, and the MACD indicator shows the two lines converging, raising the possibility of a bearish crossover. While the figures alone suggest a correction phase, the concern is that this technical weakening is also manifesting simultaneously across other market layers.

Changes occurring in both the spot and futures markets are particularly noteworthy. The average order size in futures contracts is rising, suggesting increased participation from individual traders. The growing proportion of short-term trading centered on retail traders, rather than large institutional volumes, raises concerns about increased price volatility. Moreover, the Taker CVD(Cumulative Delta Volume) in the futures market shows a bearish dominance, with continuous accumulation of sell executions at market price.

Significance of Funding Rate Turning Negative

There is an indicator that more clearly reflects the market’s bearish sentiment: the OI-weighted funding rate. BNB’s funding rate turned negative on Monday, recording -0.006% as of Tuesday. This means that short positions are paying long positions, indicating that traders betting on a decline are leading the market. Historical data shows that BNB often experiences sharp drops immediately after the funding rate turns negative, suggesting traders are reacting sensitively to this change.

Simultaneous deterioration in on-chain data and technical indicators may signal a transition from a mere correction to a full-fledged bearish trend. The absence of price support through buybacks( and repurchases), combined with these negative signals, serves as a warning sign for investors.

Chart: $844 as the Last Bastion

The most critical level to watch on the chart is the daily support at $844. This level was tested on Monday after being pushed down from the descending trendline since mid-October. Whether BNB can hold here will significantly influence the short-term direction.

If the price closes below $844 on a daily basis, there is a possibility of further decline toward the weekly support at $709.29. Especially if the MACD bearish crossover confirms, it could accelerate the downward trend.

Conversely, if a rebound occurs, the nearest resistance is the 50-day EMA at $923.14. Breaking through and stabilizing above this level would weaken the current bearish narrative.

In summary

The increasing proportion of retail traders, strengthening sell dominance, and the shift to negative funding rates are all occurring alongside weakening technical momentum. Whether the $844 support holds will likely determine the future direction.