[PI Market] Trading range from $0.21... The 'double-edged sword' of mainnet acceleration becomes a reality

• Spot price remains trapped near $0.21, still facing resistance at the 50-day EMA of $0.2394… Continued defense of the psychological level at $0.22

• Concerns over oversupply due to a surge in exchange inflows… Paradoxically, mainnet migration is fueling price weakness

• If the October low of $0.1919 breaks, a plunge to a record low of $0.1533 is possible… Reclaiming $0.2394 is essential for a bullish reversal

The market situation faced by Pi Network(Pi Network, PI) is a strange mix of growth and weakness. Despite ongoing structural positive news like the mainnet migration, the spot price remains stuck around $0.21. Unable to break through the technical resistance at the 50-day EMA of $0.2394, buyers and sellers are in a tense standoff over the psychological level at $0.22.

( Side effect of mainnet activation: surge in exchange inflows

Interestingly, positive signals at the network level are actually weighing on the market. According to PiScan)PiScan### data, in the past 24 hours, tokens worth 177,867 PI have flowed into centralized exchange wallets. The total amount held by CEXs has risen to approximately 437.88 million tokens, indicating a growing volume of sell-side liquidity ready to hit the market at any time.

This rush of exchange inflows is driven by accelerated mainnet migration. Pi Network has reduced KYC(Know Your Customer) processing times by 50% through AI technology, with 17.5 million users verified so far. Notably, over 6.42 million tokens were transferred to the mainnet in just December, significantly increasing the circulating supply. While network activation is a clear technical advance, it is creating excess supply pressure from the market’s perspective.

( Fundamental cause of price weakness: supply-demand imbalance

In fact, market sentiment is converging on “more about defending declines than attempting to rise.” Over the past few weeks, PI has been trending downward due to technical resistance, with selling pressure outweighing buying interest. The reason for this persistent supply-demand mismatch is clear.

Mainnet migration has increased holders’ desire to cash out. Without real-world use cases to support circulation, the surge in supply inevitably leads to oversupply. If demand cannot absorb the increased volume, downward price pressure becomes unavoidable.

) Technical analysis: vulnerable lower support levels

The chart also shows many warning signs. The first support level that market participants are watching is the October 11 low of $0.1919. If this level breaks, the next target is the all-time low of $0.1533 recorded on October 10.

Technical indicators also reinforce the bearish outlook. The daily RSI(Relative Strength Index) is at 43, below the neutral 50, indicating a bearish market. The MACD and signal line are also showing ongoing bearish divergence below zero, making a trend reversal unlikely at this point.

Conditions for a bullish reversal

To escape this bearish trend, a clear turning point is needed. Buyers must regain control by closing above the 50-day EMA at $0.2394. If this level is sustained, it could pave the way for a medium-term rally toward the $0.26–$0.28 range. However, if concerns over oversupply persist, such technical rebounds may remain limited.