Looking at the recent week’s market and capital flow, there is indeed a chance for Bitcoin to hit 95k, but to truly stabilize at this critical level, it must pass three hurdles.

First, let's talk about the spot market. The range between 94,000 and 94,500 has relatively scattered positions. If trading volume breaks through this level, the upside could directly extend to 95,000 or even 96,000. But that’s not enough.

The real trouble lies on the futures side. Above 95k, there are a pile of massive short positions and trapped positions from previous periods. To break through this level, there must be continuous trading volume to support it; otherwise, it’s easy to get pushed back down.

The most crucial factor is this macro window. Before the January FOMC meeting, the market remains cautious. Although ETF inflows are still ongoing, the growth rate has clearly slowed down. This week, we need to watch how US CPI and employment data develop—if they lean dovish, the bulls will have reasons to push higher; if hawkish, the 95k surge will likely fade, and we might see a retest of the 92,000-93,000 range.

Based on short-term data, if within the next 7 days, the daily chart closes above 94,600 twice, the probability of reaching 95,000-97,100 is quite high. Conversely, if it falls below 93,600, the bulls will lose momentum and will need to consolidate around 90,000-91,000 first.

In simple terms, 95k is possible, but the prerequisite is volume support and standing firm at 94,600 twice. For the spot market, consider buying on dips near 92k; for futures, always set stop-losses—don’t go all-in.