The US M2 year-over-year growth rate trend is currently mirroring the script from late 2018 to 2019. The current growth level roughly aligns with June 2019, which is a signal worth pondering.

To be honest, relying solely on the current liquidity level makes it difficult to trigger a large-scale bull market. The market generally expects a rate cut in April, and with the Fed potentially changing leadership in the second half of the year, there is still a chance for a rebound or a small bull in the short term. But these are all temporary phases.

The real key lies in the second half of the year. The policy stance that the new Federal Reserve leadership will adopt will directly determine whether a sustained easing environment can be formed. Without substantial liquidity injection, a major bull market is basically a pipe dream. So, for now, we still need to wait, observe the rebound, and watch the actions of the upper levels.