Why are Bitcoin and the US dollar both benefiting as geopolitical risks intensify?

Venezuela’s situation is becoming an interesting asset story: on one hand, U.S. intervention in Venezuela is seen by analysts as a long-term positive for U.S. stocks and the dollar; on the other hand, the same geopolitical risks are driving up the appeal of safe-haven assets like Bitcoin. This reflects the deeper logic of global asset allocation under geopolitical uncertainty.

Quick Analysis: Profit Logic of Macro Assets

According to the latest news, XTB analyst Kathleen Brooks pointed out that U.S. intervention in Venezuela has secured energy supplies, thereby fostering long-term positive expectations for the U.S. economy. The logic is straightforward: lower energy costs or stable supply means easing inflation pressures in the U.S., which in turn supports dollar appreciation and strong U.S. stock performance.

While analysts also acknowledge that short-term impacts may be minimal, in the long run, stable energy supplies indeed support U.S. assets. This explains why geopolitical conflicts often push the dollar higher—as the global reserve currency, the dollar tends to benefit when uncertainty increases.

The Other Side of the Crypto Market: Why Bitcoin Also Profits

But there’s an interesting paradox: the same geopolitical risks are also strengthening Bitcoin’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. According to related reports, Bitunix analyst believes that although the U.S. “oil blockade” strategy against Venezuela has cooled expectations of direct takeover, it has actually intensified geopolitical uncertainty. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s decentralization and its role as a capital transfer tool are regaining market attention.

This is not just political rhetoric but a signal that the U.S. is restarting a combination of “energy + financial sanctions.” As global conflicts fragment and sanctions become normalized trends, markets are beginning to reprice long-term geopolitical instability.

Market Implications of Venezuela’s $60 Billion Bitcoin Reserves

More noteworthy is Venezuela’s own accumulation of Bitcoin “shadow reserves.” According to data, since 2018, Venezuela has accumulated between 600,000 and 660,000 BTC through gold swaps, oil-for-USDT settlements, and seized mining outputs, currently valued at about $56 billion to $67 billion, accounting for roughly 3% of circulating Bitcoin supply.

The sources of these reserves are worth noting:

The potential flow of these reserves could profoundly impact the Bitcoin market. Analysts suggest that the U.S. might freeze these assets or include them in strategic reserves, effectively locking in about 3% of market supply, which could create a bullish market narrative.

Why Government Bans Are Ineffective Against Crypto Assets

A key historical comparison is worth noting. According to reports, Iran’s central bank recently banned Bitcoin trading, yet P2P and DEX trading volumes doubled. This reveals a fundamental truth: the decentralized nature of assets determines the limits of government bans.

• Centralized platforms can be shut down, but P2P and DEX cannot
• Accounts can be frozen, but private keys cannot
• The demand for wealth preservation cannot be stopped

When a country’s currency loses credibility and inflation spirals out of control (Iranian rial devalued by 60%, inflation at 42.2%), any ban is fighting against human nature. Bitcoin instead becomes an “underground hard currency.” Venezuela’s history also confirms this.

Summary: A New Asset Allocation Pattern Under Multiple Logics

Venezuela’s situation is evolving into a multi-layered asset story:

• Macro level: Geopolitical stability boosts the dollar and U.S. stocks—this is the traditional asset allocation logic
• Crypto level: The same geopolitical uncertainty enhances Bitcoin’s appeal as a safe-haven and capital transfer tool
• Policy level: Government bans often strengthen rather than weaken the appeal of decentralized assets

The key point is not the short-term impact of a single event but how markets reprice long-term instability amid normalized sanctions and fragmented conflicts. In this process, the dollar, U.S. stocks, and Bitcoin may all benefit simultaneously—they represent risk assets, major country assets, and safe-haven assets, respectively. Future focus should be on how Venezuela’s $60 billion Bitcoin reserves are ultimately managed and whether they will serve as a supply anchor in the Bitcoin market.