This week, the crypto market is set to be bombarded by macroeconomic data.

Federal Reserve speeches, non-farm payrolls, CPI—these heavyweight indicators are all coming in quick succession, and the movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to be driven by these data points. Crypto enthusiasts should stay alert and beware of black swan events.

On Monday, the week kicks off with the December US ISM Manufacturing PMI and a speech by Federal Reserve official Kashkari. His remarks tend to send significant policy signals. If the data lean hawkish, risk assets could immediately come under pressure. By Wednesday, inflation data from the Eurozone and the US ADP employment report will hit the market simultaneously. The performance of these two data points can directly influence market expectations for rate cuts. As a precursor to non-farm payrolls, if employment data exceeds expectations, the rate cut expectations will cool down, and crypto prices may suffer.

The real key events are the initial jobless claims on Thursday and the US non-farm payrolls on Friday. These two data points will determine whether the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates or begins to loosen policy, directly affecting liquidity in the crypto market. Don’t forget that inflation and manufacturing data from China, the Eurozone, and other regions are also subtly influencing global economic sentiment, which in turn impacts the crypto market.

Currently, the crypto market’s sensitivity to macro policies has reached its peak. The smartest approach before data releases is to hold a light position and wait patiently, avoiding being caught off guard during periods of high volatility. If non-farm payrolls show weak performance and rate cut expectations rise, Bitcoin and Ethereum might find a rebound opportunity; conversely, the bearish trend could further solidify.