#美联储政策 The signal of a weakening labor market is becoming increasingly evident. Non-farm payroll data shows a halt in employment growth, and the Federal Reserve is very likely to continue cutting interest rates—this directly impacts the profit expectations tracked by macro traders.

After observing the recent position adjustments of several experts I follow, they are generally increasing their pricing of rate cut expectations, especially in US Treasuries and related derivatives. The key point is that their stop-loss settings are very tight, indicating they remain cautious about inflation data. This "go with the trend but don't be greedy" logic is worth learning.

From a position management perspective, if your risk appetite is moderate, you might consider allocating 30-40% of your funds to traders with a fundamental trading style. They usually have a keener sense of economic data cycles. But the prerequisite is to review their historical drawdown rates and their ability to execute single-stop-loss orders; don’t just look at the profit numbers.

Next, focus on this week's inflation data. If the CPI continues to decline, it will strongly confirm the expectation of further rate cuts, allowing for more aggressive follow-up and position adjustments. Conversely, if it rises, you should immediately reduce your positions—macro trading most taboo is reacting slowly to conflicting changes.