January 5 Afternoon Market Observation

Currently, the cryptocurrency news scene is particularly lively. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tensions are continuously putting pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. Looking ahead to the 2026 cycle, internal policy divisions within the Federal Reserve are widening, economic data will be released gradually, and geopolitical conflicts are still recurring. All these factors suggest that the upward momentum of the coin prices should be maintained. Even more concerning are personnel changes in U.S. policy circles, weakening employment data, and the pressure from mid-term elections. These factors are highly likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the first half of 2026. Once rate cuts actually happen, a new bull market for Bitcoin and Ethereum will be almost certain.

Let's switch to the technical analysis to see how the short-term trend looks.

On the daily chart, the coin price is making daily green candles, currently in a consolidation phase at high levels. On the hourly chart, the movement is a stair-step upward pattern, but just now, a small bearish candle appeared in the last hour, signaling a potential correction. Regarding technical indicators, both the daily and hourly MACD are above the zero line, indicating strong bullish momentum. However, the indicator bars on the hourly chart have started to shrink, suggesting a short-term pullback is needed. The hourly RSI has already reached 71.2, approaching the overbought zone, so traders should be cautious of a correction risk. In contrast, the daily RSI is only at 63.2, still far from overbought, leaving room for further upward movement.

Regarding moving averages, the EMA arrangement on the hourly chart is clear—EMA7 > EMA30 > EMA120, a classic bullish setup. Currently, the price is hugging the EMA7; if it falls below this line, the next support level will be EMA30.

The trading strategy is straightforward: hold firmly at the 89,200 support level. If the price retraces to this point, consider entering long positions.

#Strategy加码BTC配置 Suggested long entry points: 90,700-91,700, target 93,300-94,300
$BTC Suggested long entry points: 3,070-3,110, target 3,190-3,230

Market risks still exist, so proper stop-loss management is essential to survive long-term in the market.