US employment data may reshape Fed rate cut expectations; Bitcoin fluctuates at high levels, awaiting key signals

【Blockchain Rhythm】 Recently, US economic data has become the focus of the market, especially employment and GDP, which almost determine the Federal Reserve’s next moves. In the December Federal Reserve meeting minutes, many officials adopted a cautious attitude towards rapid rate cuts. Coupled with the better-than-expected Q3 GDP performance, the market has basically ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in January. According to interest rate futures data, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in March is close to 50%.

But all of this depends on—stability in the employment market. The December non-farm payroll data released this week, and whether the November data is revised downward, are key points to watch. Additionally, the performance of the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI will directly reflect the economic and inflation trends.

Looking at the crypto market, Bitcoin is currently in a high-level oscillation, with no clear direction. From derivatives data, implied volatility in options is declining, and put options maintain a certain premium, indicating that market sentiment is more defensive than bullish. Simply put, if employment data weakens, expectations for rate cuts may be reactivated, and the market could improve; conversely, if the data performs strongly, the market is likely to continue oscillating and waiting.