#预测市场 The probability of Bitcoin surpassing 100,000 on Polymarket has dropped from 11% to 10%, and I find it a bit amusing. These days, market sentiment has shifted to caution, essentially meaning that the year-end FOMO is starting to fade.

Remember a few months ago when the headlines were full of "Bitcoin will definitely break 100,000"? Now, the market is voting with data—32% of people are still betting on 95,000, and 18% are even betting it will break 80,000. This is the most authentic side of prediction markets—they ruthlessly burst those speculative bubbles.

Having been active on the blockchain for so many years, my biggest lesson is: don’t let market sentiment hijack you. Projects driven by FOMO to pump prices, and those claiming "it will definitely rise," all end up as tools for harvesting retail investors. Prediction markets like Polymarket actually give us a good mirror—when probabilities keep decreasing, it indicates that smart money is quietly changing its tune.

What’s the bottom line? Don’t chase the hype at high levels, and don’t be scared by low-probability events to buy the dip. Know when to get in and when to get out, and always stay alert to survive longer in this market.