A fascinating divergence unfolded in the 2025 financial markets — traditional assets surged while Bitcoin unexpectedly faltered. Even more painfully, Bitcoin recorded a yearly decline in this cycle after the halving. What signals are behind this? Has the old halving cycle law truly become invalid?

Don’t rush to conclusions. The core issue isn’t the halving itself but rather the need to dig deeper. The future of the 2026 crypto market is hidden within three variables: how global liquidity flows, how the US political landscape reshapes, and whether the crypto market can evolve from mere "storytelling" to genuine "infrastructure."

**Liquidity is the real "water temperature"**

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy remains undoubtedly the key determinant of the market’s "water temperature." But this time, divergence has emerged — and it’s rare.

The Fed itself has been quite conservative: the dot plot at the end of 2025 predicts only one rate cut in 2026. But Wall Street isn’t buying it. Major investment banks like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo are all singing a different tune, generally betting on two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points, pushing the rate range to 3.00%-3.25%.

More aggressive voices come from Citibank. They believe US GDP growth will stay around 2%, and the labor market remains persistently weak. Against this backdrop, how long can the Fed maintain its "wait and see" stance? This is the core suspense facing the market.