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Former Treasury Secretary Yellen and former Federal Reserve official Mester recently issued a joint warning: the US debt issue has escalated from a potential risk to the most urgent challenge at present. This is not just an economic topic; it is equally worth the attention of crypto investors.
According to forecast data from the Congressional Budget Office, the US fiscal deficit may reach $1.9 trillion by 2026, with the debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 100%. If the trend continues, this ratio could even soar to 118% within ten years. What does this mean? As government debt pressure increases, the Federal Reserve will face more complex choices—continue raising interest rates to control inflation, or be forced to keep interest rates low to help the government repay debt?
The current government's stance is highly controversial. Some comments point out that pressuring to cut interest rates to ease debt pressure is somewhat similar to the financial policies of certain developing countries. Mester expressed concern, believing that current policymakers may not fully realize the consequences of these policies.
For the crypto market, what does this macroeconomic shift imply? The Federal Reserve's policy direction, the dollar depreciation expectations, and the global liquidity environment will all adjust accordingly. Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge may once again be recognized by the market. The countdown has begun, and the future developments are worth continuous observation.